Diplomacy conceals English confidence

Lawrence Dallaglio yesterday issued the usual diplomatic sound-bites about giving England's opponents respect, yet it was hard to believe his team expect anything other than a ninth successive victory over the Scots.

Since their 1990 Grand Slam, Scotland have paid a heavy price for beating England 13-7 that year, so much so that the game's oldest international fixture has lost its traditional spice.

Dallaglio has no reason for genuine anxiety about playing at Murrayfield tomorrow, having shared in England's 18-9 win there two years ago. The Northampton half-backs, Matt Dawson and Paul Grayson, who are among seven survivors from the 1996 line-up, also have happy memories of Murrayfield: Dawson serviced a rampant English pack in brilliant style and Grayson set a ground record for England with six penalty goals.

Taking his cue from the captain, England's forwards coach, John Mitchell, warned that Murrayfield would be "a very difficult environment" and that his side faced a potential "ambush" organised by that wily old fox, Jim Telfer.

England's most obvious shortcoming in this fixture is their reliance on penalties rather than tries, having scored only three in their last nine visits. Still, statistics from previous matches also show that Scotland tend to spend much of the 80 minutes playing without the ball because England dominate the set-pieces and clean up in the loose.

As Mitchell suggested, Telfer does relish the challenge presented by a bigger, stronger and possibly fitter England side, who he freely admits have nearly always been favourites to win the Calcutta Cup.

Certainly, the man who guided Scotland to a Grand Slam in 1984, as well as 1990, will have learned a great deal about the potential short-comings of the England players who took part in last summer's Lions tour of South Africa, where they were coached through the seven weeks by the Scottish disciplinarian.

Scotland's performance in their defeat against Wales at Wembley a fortnight ago may, perversely, have given captain Gary Armstrong and his men the conviction that they can subdue the English. If props David Hilton and Paul Burnell can unhinge England's vulnerable front row in the scrums, and if locks Doddie Weir and Damian Cronin win a decent share of line-out ball, Scotland may have a fighting chance of driving their opponents onto the back foot.

Any development that allows loose forwards Eric Peters and Andy Roxburgh to make use of their scavenging skills in broken play should also work to Scotland's advantage. Scotland also have quick-witted backs who can exploit momentary midfield gaps and available space on the flanks. However, England's collective firepower is likely to overwhelm the instinctive gifts of the Scots, who may have to settle for making at least 100 tackles.

England's biggest enemy after their record 60-26 victory over Wales might be complacency, though Mitchell insists their mental preparation has been good. The England coach, Clive Woodward, has had to make four changes, but none really weakens the team; indeed, the return of Dawson may increase England's options around the fringes and provide a more direct line of attack through the midfield.

Unlike the beleaguered Scots, England have substitutes of proven ability on hand each time a top player has to drop out. That is the true measure of the widening gap in quality between England and the Celts.