Good morning.
After the excitement of the fuel protests and (yet another) Fianna Fáil heave that wasn’t, politics is set to return to a more even keel this week.
The Government will publish updated economic forecasts today when Ministers sign off the spring economic statement.
We may get to see some of the impact of the recent fuel supports on financial projections for the year, though such publications are not always designed to make things clear.
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The messaging from Government in advance of today’s figures was very much a twin-track operation. Simon Harris stressed that the Government may be preparing to offer more supports – the prospects for tax cuts and a return of energy supports were explicitly flagged – in the budget, while Jack Chambers is preparing to tell Ministers that they have to stick to their spending plans as the economic environment deteriorated. You can view this as a closely co-ordinated operation designed to cover all bases or as evidence of incoherence at the top of Government.
There will be good news and bad news today: the good news is that the Government expects to still run a surplus, fuelled by continuing economic growth; the bad news is that the world is going to hell in a handcart.
Here’s our lead story: Ministers face curbs on spending amid global uncertainty.
The statement is expected to published after the Cabinet meets this morning, with a press conference by the two budget Ministers.
Here’s Jack Horgan-Jones’ preview of the other matters on the Cabinet agenda, including a new job for the mandarin all the other mandarins call “the Guvnor”, Robert Watt.
Connolly hears from Council of State
President Catherine Connolly summoned the first meeting of her Council of State yesterday to hear their views on whether she should refer the International Protection Bill to the Supreme Court to adjudicate on its constitutionality. She will make a decision on referral before tomorrow evening.
After a lengthy meeting of the council, said by some insiders to be “intense”, the Aras issued a brief statement, saying: “The President will now consider the views of the members of the council before making a decision as to whether to sign the Bill or to refer it to the Supreme Court for a decision on the question as to whether the Bill or any specified provision or provisions thereof are repugnant to the Constitution or to any provision thereof.”
There were suggestions from some people who snoozed their way through civics class during the presidential election that Connolly would block legislation she didn’t like. That’s not how it works. If she believes, after consulting the council, that a Bill may be unconstitutional, she can refer it under Article 26. The court will then decide. If it decides that the Bill is not unconstitutional, it is immune from all further challenges.
All is explained here: What is the Council of State and why is it meeting today at Áras an Uachtaráin?
Byelections to be called
Here we go. It’s expected that the Government will call the two byelections in Dublin Central and Galway West this week, with polling day likely to be named as Friday, May 22nd.
Fine Gael is expected to move the writ for Dublin Central in the Dáil on Wednesday, with the Minister for Housing and Local Government James Browne likely to nominate May 22nd as polling day. This would mean a four-week campaign before voting takes place.
Once polling day has been set, nominations for candidates will be opened. However, many candidates are already in the field in both constituencies, with campaigns and canvassing under way in earnest.
Fine Gael fancies it has a chance in Galway West with Sean Kyne, but otherwise it’s hard to see much in the way of prospects for the Government parties. If Fianna Fáil does very badly, expect another outbreak of the heebie jeebies on the backbenches.
More on the story here: Dublin Central and Galway West byelections expected to be called this week
Meanwhile, developments in the Gulf continue. Follow the latest updates in our live story.
There’s also an amazing story from Denis Staunton in Beijing of the UCD team who went to China 50 years ago – and are now making a return trip.
Mark Hennessy on the mellowing of Irish-America.
And Fintan O’Toole on the “learned helplessness” of the Government.
Playbook
The Cabinet holds its weekly meeting at Government Buildings this morning with a busy agenda as flagged above.
Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee is in Brussels where EU foreign ministers will discuss a possible suspension of the EU-Israel agreement.
In the Dáil, there’s Leaders’ Questions at 2pm, followed by the weekly row over the Order of Business. Finance and health oral questions later might be interesting. The Seanad Éireann has statements on the fuel supports.
There’s a lot of meaty stuff at the committees today. The list includes – but is not limited to – defence and cybersecurity issues at the Committee on Artificial Intelligence; the impact of climate change on fish stocks at the fisheries committee; cross-Border trade at the Good Friday Agreement Committee; gender-based violence at the Justice Committee; Traveller accommodation at the Housing Committee; Afghanistan at the Foreign Affairs Committee; spending overruns at the Budgetary Oversight Committee; the United States’s experience with drug use at the Drugs Committee; and there’s more – see the full schedule here.
