Your MoneyExplainer

How much will petrol or diesel cost in Ireland from midnight?

Cuts to excise duty and the Nora levy, plus a rise in the fuel allowance, are intended to limit the increases in fuel prices resulting from conflict in the Middle East

Taoiseach Micheál Martin said on Tuesday the Government will cut excise duty on fuel prices. Video: Enda O'Dowd

So, we have details of the Government’s plan to save us from the oil crisis, do we?

Steady on. Not even the most optimistic members of the Government are claiming the measures being introduced on Tuesday will be enough to insulate us from what is happening in the Middle East. In fact, the Government has been very anxious to stress it will be impossible to shield the Irish economy and people here from the potentially devastating economic impact of the war in Iran, particularly if the conflict stretches into the summer and beyond.

Okay, so what is the Government going to do for us?

First things first. It is cutting the excise duty on a litre of diesel by 20 cent and the duty on a litre of petrol by 15 cent as of midnight. That will see the excise taken in from a litre of petrol fall from just over 54 cent a litre to just under 40 cent while the excise from diesel will fall from 42.5 cent to 22.5 cent.

Well that is better than nothing, I suppose. So the price at the pumps will fall immediately, will it?

No. Fuels For Ireland, the umbrella group that represents the sector, has warned that although excise duty changes can take effect immediately from a policy and regulatory perspective, “their impact on retail fuel prices is not instantaneous across all service stations”.

What does that mean?

Well, according to Fuels for Ireland, the fuel sold at forecourts has been purchased in advance and is held in on-site storage tanks – so, depending on the size of the forecourt, the fuel may remain in storage for hours or days. “As a result, any reduction in excise duty will only be reflected in pump prices once stations begin selling fuel that has been delivered after the duty change has come into effect,” its chief executive, Kevin McPartlan, has said.

The bottom line, then, is larger stations that receive frequent deliveries may reflect price changes within hours while smaller or lower-volume stations, which receive deliveries less frequently, may take several days to pass the reduced costs through.

By how much have prices jumped, anyway?

Quite a bit more than the excise duty is being cut by, that is for sure. Since the start of the month, retail prices for petrol have climbed by just over 25 cent a litre while diesel prices have gone up by 55 cent.

So, even with the cut in excise duty I am going to be worse off?

Yes, although you might be happy to learn the Government is also to cut the National Oil Reserve Agency (Nora) levy, which will amount to a cut of 2 cent per litre. But that cut will take a big longer to implement, as it requires legislation to go through the Oireachtas.

So, when you add the cuts in excise duty to the Nora cut, what will it mean for me?

Well, the average Irish motorist drives about 1,400km a month and a typical Irish car will require about 1 litre of petrol or diesel for every 12km travelled – some are more fuel efficient than that, some are less fuel efficient. Using our figures, an average motorist can expect to use in the region of 120 litres of motor fuel a month. At the risk of sounding like a maths question in a sixth-class textbook, how much do you think the cut in excise duty will be worth to the typical Irish motorist every month?

I thought I was asking the questions?

You are. But the answer to the one we asked is the monthly savings for a diesel car owner will be about €25.66 while the driver of a petrol car can expect to be €19.83 better off each month. We must stress we use the term “better off’ very loosely here because even after the cuts in excise and duty, petrol will be 8 cent a litre more expensive than it was at the start of March, while diesel will cost 33 cent a litre more.

That’s not much good is it?

It’s not great, truth be told.

But the cuts in the cost of petrol and diesel are not the only measures coming down the tracks, are they?

No. The fuel allowance that is currently worth €38 a week to the 470,000 people who qualify for it is being extended. Overnight it was thought the payment could be doubled, but Government sources then said the plan is to extend by four weeks the “season” during which the payment is made - meaning an additional €152 for households receiving it.

Is there anything else?

There is. As part of the package there is going to be a diesel rebate scheme for hauliers and bus operators, which will be backdated to January. That will, the Government hopes, keep supply chains functioning.

And all these changes are open-ended, are they?

No, they are not. The Government has been very careful to stress that the measures are temporary, with the expectation being they will be come to an end at the end of May. The date may depend on the trajectory of the war.

How much will all this cost?

It is set to cost the exchequer about €250 million. Here it is worth pointing out that the exchequer has seen a big revenue bounce since the start of the war as a result of higher prices leading to much higher VAT returns. The tax take for the Government climbed by €38 million in the first week of the conflict as a result of a surge in sales driven by consumer panic; but based on normal sales at today’s prices the Government will collect an additional €26 million per week in VAT. That will fall slightly as a result of the relief measures being announced, but with the price of fuel still elevated, the tax take will remain higher than it was.

So, no sign of an energy credit like the ones we had in the wake of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine then?

No, and it is worth pointing out that none of the State’s energy providers have increased their prices for existing customers yet. They tend to do that far less frequently than other energy suppliers, with price modifications limited to twice a year. They have been able to hold off on any price hikes as a result of the soaring price of oil and gas on global markets thanks to their hedging practices, which see them buy oil up to 18 months in advance. Having said that, it seems inevitable domestic energy prices will jump sharply as the year progresses. And when they do, there will be calls for the return of energy credits.

So, there is nothing to see on the home energy front?

We didn’t say that. While there has been no official pricing announcements by any providers, they have been “tweaking” the discounted rates offered to new customers, with many of the best-value deals disappearing, according to Daragh Cassidy of price comparison and switching website bonkers.ie. He says that while there are some substantial discounts on offer from some suppliers to new customers, others “have heavily reduced the discounts available to new customers and/or removed the welcome credit”.

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