There is a growing expectation in Government that the Mercosur trade deal, which opens up trade between the EU and South American countries including allowing increased access to EU markets for beef imports, will be signed in the coming weeks, despite Ireland’s objections.
Two senior sources with knowledge of the issue said that they expected Italy would withdraw its objections to the deal, meaning there would no longer be a “blocking minority” against the agreement, which could then proceed despite objections from Ireland and other countries.
The deal – which has been 25 years in the making – was delayed in December, but there is a growing expectation in EU circles that Italy will agree to the deal this month. This would effectively mean that Ireland and others could not stop the agreement because it has strong majority support across the EU.
It would mean that the Government would have to accept the deal – something likely to trigger protests on the streets and in the Dáil.
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A major demonstration is planned for next Saturday, January 10th, in Athlone, with farming organisations and Opposition parties strongly against the agreement.
International media reported just before Christmas that Italian prime minister Giorgia Meloni had reassured Brazilian President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva that she was not against the agreement and would assent to it once she had a few more weeks to engage with Italian farmers.
“The reality is that if Italy goes for it, that’s that,” said one senior Irish figure.
“There are very few scenarios where it can be stopped without the Italians,” said another.
Both people were granted anonymity in order to speak freely about a sensitive issue.
The Irish Government has previously said it is against the deal, though some assurances about the effects on the beef sector were secured during last minute negotiations late last year.
And speaking at the most recent EU summit in Brussels before Christmas, Taoiseach Micheál Martin seemed to indicate some softening of opposition to the deal.
The agreement would open up a huge South American market for European exports by lowering trade barriers between the EU and Brazil, Argentina, Uruguay and Paraguay.
Extra safeguards to protect European beef farmers from being undercut by cheaper South American imports had made the proposed deal “a much stronger agreement” than it was a year ago, Mr Martin said at the time.
He said Ireland was continuing to work with “like-minded countries” to improve the proposed deal.
But he added that any decision had to be seen “in the round” and the State needed to be conscious that the EU had recently agreed to extend a nitrates derogation afforded to Irish dairy farmers. Some Government sources say that there are significant export opportunities for the dairy and grain sectors, as well as other industries, should the deal go through.
Ireland is also seeking to secure the most generous possible funding for a new Common Agricultural Policy at a time when there are growing pressures on the EU budget, not least because of the war in Ukraine.
Mr Martin was criticised by farm organisations for linking the Mercosur issue with other negotiations, though the reality, say political and diplomatic sources, is that everything is linked.
Both the Taoiseach Mr Martin and the Tánaiste Simon Harris have new year trips beyond the EU planned. Mr Martin will travel to China next week, while Mr Harris is due to visit the west coast of the United States the following week. Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee is due to visit Egypt and Jordan.
