Good morning.
It’s budget day, one of the biggest days in the entire political calendar. Interested observers, lobby groups, party supporters and hangers-on of all descriptions will flock to Leinster House, and the Dáil bar will be heaving from early evening – though the House authorities have again stepped up security and Kildare Street has been closed off from this morning. If you’re coming in, get in early.
The new Minister for Finance, Jack Chambers, will get to his feet at 1pm in the chamber to deliver his first budget, and he will be followed by Paschal Donohoe, delivering his ninth, either as minister for finance or, his current role, Minister for Public Expenditure. Nine budgets surely qualifies Donohoe as one of the main architects of the Ireland of 2024.
Much of what will follow in the speeches of the two Ministers is already in the public domain. This fact is decried by traditionalist mandarins and politicians of the old school who remember when Phil Hogan had to resign for sending out a press release about the budget a few hours early.
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Households worse off over failure to peg tax and welfare changes to income growth - ESRI
If our finances go flat, how will Ireland pay its bills?
We prefer to look at it as testimony to the outstanding work done by political correspondents. But anyway.
The budget makes for our lead story today, of course.
You can find our summary of the main points of the budget here, and this will be updated throughout the day.
We’ll also be running a live story all day on the budget for the latest news and analysis as the day takes shape.
Prospect of election frames budget
Will Donohoe be delivering a 10th budget next year (breaking the record he holds jointly, finance mandarins say, with Ernest Blythe)? Will Chambers be doing his second? The prospect of the forthcoming general election hangs over everything now, and the budget is no different. Two big facts make the weather on this: one, the Government has a massive surplus; two, there’s an election coming. So what do you think is going to happen?
Donohoe and Chambers seem to have held some measure of restraint over the spending increases, though they will still burst through their own fiscal rule of limiting expenditure increases to 5 per cent for the third year in a row. They will return a big surplus.
But the amount to be paid out in one-off spending measures – which will see people receive substantial cash boosts before Christmas – grew substantially in recent days and will now reach €2 billion. That translates into two double payments of child benefit (a double-double payment worth nearly €1,700 to families with three children), new energy credits of €250 and an array of other payments intended to help people with the increased cost of living.
Isn’t this just an attempt to sweeten voters before the election? Well, yes. But such are the resources available to the Government that it can spend big on one-offs and public services, put money into rainy day funds, boost capital spending – and still run a massive surplus. Not spending the spare cash the Government has at its disposal might be economically desirable. But it would be politically unsustainable.
Analysis is here.
Fintan O’Toole also has some thoughts.
Israeli troops enter Lebanon
There are other things going on in the world. Israeli troops have entered Lebanon in a significant escalation of its offensive against Hizbullah. Sally Hayden reported that an Israeli ground invasion of Lebanon appeared imminent on Monday night, as Lebanon reeled from another day of air strikes and assassinations.
Early this morning Israel began “limited, localised” ground raids in southern Lebanon, the IDF tweeted early this morning. The Jerusalem Post calls it “Israel’s third Lebanon war”; Al Jazeera reports “massive strikes” on Beiruit’s southern suburbs.
The outbreak of a broader war in the Middle East would certainly not leave Ireland untouched from its consequences. We might be grateful for those budget surpluses yet.
Best reads
Today’s head to head is about Leo Varadkar’s suggestion that every party should declare a united Ireland to be an objective
Only one of 230 complaints against Irish judges under a new complaints mechanism has been assessed as being worthy of further consideration. Not sure what the Burkes would make of this.
Kris Kristofferson obituary.
Conor Lally asks: why is the Creeslough investigation taking so long?
Review of last night’s television documentary about the astonishing story of Ben Dunne.
More outstanding management of project costs by the OPW.
Playbook
The Cabinet meets this morning to approve the budget and be briefed on its contents.
Dáil business gets under way at 1pm, with the Ministers’ speeches, which will be responded to by the finance spokespeople for the Opposition. The debate continues until 8pm.
Then after a break, Jack Chambers will present the financial motions to give effect to some of the changes in the budget. Votes are scheduled for midnight.
Budget statements in the Seanad are at 4.15pm, adjourning at a civilised 7.45pm.
The budget means only one committee meeting – housing, in private – this morning.
And if the budget isn’t enough excitement for one day, the US vice-presidential debate is on tonight.
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