ANALYSIS:Why does the electorate say No to the EU when times are good and vice versa? The observations of the swing voters provide some answers, writes DAMIAN LOSCHER
NO. YES. No. Yes. Our voting record in recent European referendums sends mixed signals regarding our commitment to Europe. We are clearly conflicted, but what is creating this conflict and what can we expect from voters if they are asked to vote on Europe again?
Eurobarometer surveys of Irish attitudes towards Europe hint at the source of this conflict. Irish voters are both positively and negatively disposed towards Europe, depending on the question Eurobarometer asks.
A question about past membership will yield a positive response. In fact, Ireland nearly always comes top or near top of the list of countries who feel membership of the EU has benefited the country. And membership has been good for Ireland. We joined at a time when Ireland was starved of investment and ideas. When in 1972 we were asked if we wished to join Europe, an overwhelming majority (83 per cent) of voters said Yes. We needed Europe then and have been indebted to Europe ever since.
Somewhat surprisingly perhaps, our indebtedness to Europe has not translated into support for further integration. Questions that ask about comfort in the direction that Europe is taking generate a negative response from Irish voters.
In the autumn 2008 Eurobarometer survey, only Lithuania was ranked lower than Ireland on satisfaction with the direction Europe was taking.
So, on the one hand we acknowledge that Europe has been good for Ireland, yet on the other we are concerned about further European integration. From year to year, the contradiction created by these two opposing perspectives lies unresolved, until we are asked to vote on a European treaty and can no longer ignore the contradiction.
This contradiction manifests itself in the form of European swing voters. These swing voters are open to voting Yes or No. They do not hold an ideological position, nor are they establishment voters. They look to situational factors to help them decide. And the situational factor that appears to have been most influential in recent referendums is economic performance.
The evidence to support the pivotal role played by the economy is both circumstantial and empirical. The circumstantial evidence is the apparent correlation between our voting record in the Nice and Lisbon referendums and the economic climate that prevailed at the time. In happy times we vote No. When in trouble, we vote Yes.
The first Nice referendum was rejected at a time when our economy was booming. Ireland was blazing a trail, with little need for a European compass. By the time of the second Nice referendum, our economic confidence had been undermined and it made no sense to make enemies in Brussels.
In the years between the Nice and Lisbon referendums, the boom took hold once again. We were the economic poster boys of Europe. Our fortunes may have been on the wane at the time of the first Lisbon vote, but there was enough swagger remaining to give voters the confidence to say No. A year later, Ireland was in crisis and voters were not going to turn their backs on Europe.
There is also empirical evidence to support the role of the economy in deciding referendums on Europe. This evidence is provided by a telephone poll conducted by TNS mrbi among 104 swing Yes voters in the week following the second Lisbon vote. These swing Yes voters were drawn from a national survey of 1,000 adults that asked about voting behaviour in the two Lisbon treaties. Swing Yes voters are voters who said they voted No to Lisbon I but Yes to Lisbon II. We then asked these voters to tell us in their own words what changed their minds.
Firstly, we established that they were a sizeable group, representing 15 per cent of the total electorate, according to our poll. We also discovered that their most distinguishing demographic characteristic was their age – 55 per cent of swing voters are aged 50 or over.
And we confirmed that many swing Yes voters, equating to 6 per cent of all voters, left it until the final week, and in some cases the day of polling itself, before deciding to switch.
From a polling perspective, this last observation is an important one, as it is consistent with the Irish Times/TNS mrbi pre-referendum poll that indicated a swing of eight points between our final poll (showing 59 per cent Yes) conducted about 10 days before polling and the actual referendum result (67 per cent Yes).
Secondly, and critically, what did the poll tell us about why voters switched to Yes? Each reason given was recorded verbatim to ensure voters were completely unprompted in their responses.
When all the responses were subsequently grouped together into answer categories, it emerged that almost four in 10 (38 per cent) swing Yes voters voted Yes on this occasion because of our ailing economy. Now was not the time to say No to Europe.
Swing voters talked about “needing support from Europe” and how voting Yes would “help the economy”. The mood of voters was effectively captured by one respondent who noted that “Ireland would be shoved to one side if we voted No: we are in a recession and we need all the help we can get”.
The poll findings also show that the economy was a sufficient but not necessary condition for a Yes vote, and that enough progress had been made on other issues to build a majority in favour of the treaty. For example, a better understanding of the treaty was cited by 25 per cent of swing Yes voters as the reason why they switched. Amendments to the treaty were also influential, causing one in every six (16 per cent) swing Yes voters to reconsider.
In the final analysis, the Lisbon Treaty was passed because Ireland believed it needed Europe. But arguably we have compromised and, at our core, remain uneasy about our future in Europe.
Today we are willing to put aside our concerns over further European integration in order to benefit economically. Longer term, the root causes of this conflict will need to be addressed.
Unless Irish voters are emotionally as well as financially committed to a future in Europe, our support for European referendums will always be conditional on Europe being an economic force for good.
Damian Loscher is managing director of TNS mrbi