Drapier never ceases to marvel at the changing chemistry of this place. Last week it was jitters and nerves all over the place. This week a calm of sorts has descended, allowing people of different temperaments to draw their own conclusions in their own way.
To the optimists - those who don't want an election, and by definition a majority in here - the omens were once again good. Things had settled down. Sense was prevailing and the upcoming moratorium on tribunal hearings will provide a respite to enable the Government get to mid-June, and then it's only a short haul to that great safe period of Irish politics - the summer recess.
Drapier is an optimist by nature and would like to subscribe to this view, but this time he feels the current facts and the prognosis for the future are against it.
Drapier now believes this Government's cohesion and self-belief were dealt a critical blow by the tribunal appearances of Mary Harney and Dermot Ahern, and with Ray Burke, Charles J. Haughey, Padraig Flynn and a few others still to make their Dublin Castle appearance, including in all probability Bertie Ahern himself, the existing fragility may not be able to withstand the pressures and shock waves ahead.
Yes, the summer recess is attainable, but no, things will not get better.
Drapier was the first to suggest that the appearance of Dermot Ahern would be somewhat of a watershed in this current drama, and so it has proved to be. His was a bruising experience, but he is resilient and will recover. The central importance of his testimony, however, was that it places a large question mark over the Taoiseach's own version, something exacerbated by Mary Harney's testimony and underlined by the Taoiseach's own lack of composure under pressure.
Some people in here, and Drapier would be one of them, feel the present tribunal process is to a very real extent being subverted by the series of parallel tribunals running in the media. In the old days a tribunal met, heard the evidence and eventually gave its judgment.
Today every single day's evidence produces its own series of judgments, without all the evidence being heard, indeed with large parts yet unheard. And while judges Flood and Moriarty may be the sole members of the tribunals, they have to jostle for space with a host of self-appointed media experts and tribunal gurus. Still, we are where we are and there can be no turning back. The word in here is that when Moriarty resumes next week we are in for a few further bombshells, with the Ansbacher dam close to bursting and with the Sheedy case likely to produce a few new surprises.
It is Flood, however, which will provide most of the headaches. Ray Burke is yet to have his say. He will be in no mood to do any favours and has little to lose by telling the full story, warts and all. It may even prove cathartic for a man who has been to hell and back these past months. George Redmond likewise, while Padraig Flynn, in spite of all the bravura, has also to face the music. And on past performance he too may be less than inhibited. The only certainty is that there will be what NATO has now taken to calling collateral damage.
However, there are other things happening. Drapier gives full marks to Bertie Ahern and Mary Harney for their speedy and very sensible response to RTE's States of Fear series. The Government took the initiative, and did so in a way which will allow adequate time to frame terms of reference to allow the new commission operate in a comprehensive and thorough way. This is an issue on which very few have clean hands. Drapier applauds Brian Quinn, the former editor of the Evening Herald, who castigated his own craft for its connivance and silence over the years.
Drapier was impressed too with David Norris's robust defence of Sister Stanislaus Kennedy in the Seanad on Wednesday.
There are enough villains around without having to invent new ones, and Drapier was among many in here who deplored the grilling Sister Stanislaus got on that day's Morning Ireland.
All the more reason then to get the terms of the new commission right. We need to know what happened, and how and why it happened. We need to ensure that what recompense can be made is made, that people are helped to remake their lives, but most of all we need to ensure that this is no mere exercise in historical research but helps to ensure that never again will its like happen. And from what Drapier hears there may be a lot more happening than we realise.
Among the items of ongoing business Drapier was interested to see that a suggestion he made some weeks ago about the handling of the Sheedy affair has now been endorsed by Monica Barnes's committee - that the matter be referred back to the Chief Justice to complete his investigations.
The view is growing in here that this is essentially a matter for the judiciary and only if all its potential has been exhausted should we as politicians get involved. Drapier was very struck by last weekend's opinion poll which showed that a huge majority believe our judicial system to be biased along lines of class and politics. Whether this is true or not is not the point. What matters is that the clearing up of the Sheedy mess would help the image of the judiciary, especially if it is done by the judiciary itself.
Speaking of polls, there was no real surprise or huge comfort for anybody in the latest batch. Fianna Fail is down from its artificial high of last year, Bertie Ahern is damaged, the graphs have Fianna Fail going the wrong way, and one-party government is out of the question. The PDs' slight recovery is of little comfort, especially since they have no Euro candidates and few enough potential winners in the local elections. Fine Gael and Labour are stable but no more than that.The Dublin figures must be of particular concern to John Bruton.
The indecisive nature of the polls underline just how important a voting alliance has become for Fianna Fail. In spite of Maire Geoghegan-Quinn's harsh words last week, Fianna Fail needs the PD transfers if it is not to lose the half-dozen or so seats it won on these transfers last time out. That is the unpalatable truth which the sharper minds in Fianna Fail recognise. It's the price of staying in power.
Maire Geoghegan-Quinn is on holidays