After a summer of such deeply divisive events as the confrontation at Drumcree and its fall out of boycottings and renewed stresses in the paramilitary organisations, a substantial drop in expectations from the political process was to be expected. Nevertheless, the findings of The Irish Times poll in the North, the first part of which is published today, makes bleak reading. Where there were, in earlier polls, some signs of cross community support beginning to coalesce around certain options, now there is regression and scepticism, and a general air of pessimistic uncertainty.
In part, this is expressed in doubt about the ability of the established political parties to make headway in the talks. The sessions before the summer did not, it must be admitted, inspire much confidence, with their long winded disputes about procedure and symbolism and their hesitancy in coming to grips with essentials. When the talks resume in Belfast today, the politicians will know that, unless they can show determination to press ahead in looking for a settlement, a majority of the electorate - 57 per cent, to judge from the poll - want to see the Irish and British governments filling the leadership vacuum, at least to the extent of proposing ways to break the deadlock.
This course, while supported by more Catholics than Protestants, has a considerable amount of backing across the communities. But as far as actual solutions are concerned, there is not only a high degree of fragmentation, but virtually every option supported by one community is rejected by the other. Power sharing between the political parties, backed by over a third of respondents, is the most popular choice, but on condition, for Catholics, that it includes North South links, which few Protestants want to see. As against this, the radical extremes of a return to majority rule or a united Ireland have not been strengthened, though nearly four out of ten Catholics said they wanted unity (almost as many Protestants wanted greater integration in the United Kingdom).
As a picture of a political society in disarray, it is difficult to imagine anything more sobering. Almost as many people - again divided along community lines believe that American involvement in the search for peace hinders progress instead of helping it, a setback for the high hopes induced by President Clinton's visit at the end of last November and a discouragement for Senator Mitchell. His patient handling of the talks has been a steadying influence and won him respect from the political parties, and his possible departure, for reasons that no one can fail to understand, would introduce another factor of uncertainty into the political process.
On the positive side, The Irish Times poll removes any lingering illusions about the nature of the problems that need to be confronted. Taken just as the summer ends, the findings probably represent the worst ebb of public opinion, with the corollary that the one third of respondents who still retain confidence in the peace talks (almost equally consisting of Catholics and Protestants) contains more than a little germ of hope. It is also significant that one of the only sets of questions where attitudes in both communities are nearly identical the one relating to the boycotting tactic - reflects enormous concern about the dangers of escalation. There are many lessons for the political leaders who meet in Stormont today, from the need to restrain the unrealisable demands of some of their followers, to reinforcing their own acceptance as negotiators for their communities. What is clear, outside the divisions revealed by the poll, is that politics is what people want, not a return to the gun and bomb.