As speculation about an autumn general election intensifies at Leinster House, the Coalition parties are likely to pay careful attention to the findings of the latest Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll which shows a four point rise in public satisfaction with the Government over a period of two weeks. Almost two-thirds of those surveyed are satisfied with the way the Government is doing its business. A repeat of the Fianna Fail/ Progressive Democrats alliance, plus Independents, is the future coalition government of choice with the largest section of voters. This is good news for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, who has presided over a stream of political controversies affecting members of Fianna Fail and his Government. It would appear that the public has discounted the revelations from the various tribunals, in so far as the State's largest political party is concerned. Its adjusted vote, at 42 per cent, is comfortably above that which it received in the last general election. The news is not so reassuring for the Tanaiste and leader of the Progressive Democrats, Ms Harney. For, while the preference of the electorate would favour a return of the existing coalition arrangement, support for Progressive Democrats has declined marginally to 3 per cent.
The magnitude of the task facing the opposition parties, if they hope to form the next government, is enormous. The Fine Gael leader, Mr Michael Noonan, has taken the first tentative steps in that direction by seeking to improve party morale through a hoped-for June by-election victory in Tipperary South. In that regard, he will have been reassured by the findings of the poll which show support for Fine Gael to be holding firm at 24 per cent. This is in spite of the controversies surrounding under-the-table payments by the party and the granting of the second mobile telephone licence by former Fine Gael minister, Mr Michael Lowry, in 1995.
The troubles of the Labour Party persist, with a further marginal slippage to 12 per cent. This amounts to a drop of four adjusted points over the past year and the loss of electoral ground must be a matter of growing concern to the party leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn. Some reassurance, however, will have been provided by the finding that Labour has reasserted its position as the second most popular party in Dublin, behind Fianna Fail. Two weeks ago, it was shown to be trailing both Fine Gael and Sinn Fein. In the same vein, the Green Party has staged something of a recovery. It has increased its support by two points to five per cent nationally, moving marginally ahead of Sinn Fein in the capital.
The high satisfaction rating for the Coalition Government is echoed by the electorate's response in favour of a renewal of that mandate. Some 38 per cent of those questioned - mainly Fianna Fail supporters - would favour a repeat of the existing arrangement. By contrast, support for different combinations of Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Green Party comes to a maximum of 26 per cent. The involvement of Sinn Fein in a future government is regarded as acceptable by a majority of voters, although the bulk of people over 50 years of age are opposed to the idea. Asked about what form that government might take, almost half of Sinn Fein's supporters rejected any involvement with existing alliances. A re-election of the existing coalition arrangement was, however, favourably regarded by 27 per cent of Sinn Fein voters. The poll finds clear evidence that the fragmentation of traditional government models continues apace.