Stephen Collins: Irish question returns to haunt Tories after 100 years

It is a nice irony that almost a century after independence the Irish question has returned to haunt British politics. A century ago the inevitability of partition served to destroy John Redmond’s Irish Party and with it all hope of a peaceful transition to independence. So it is only appropriate that the resulting Border is now causing ructions in the Conservative Party.

During the House of Commons debate on the Anglo-Irish Treaty, Winston Churchill wondered why Ireland had bulked so largely and so long in the lives of British politicians.

“How is it that the great English parties are shaken to their foundations, and even shattered, almost every generation, by contact with Irish affairs?” he asked in a speech on December 15th, 1921.

One of the advantages of that Treaty from a British point of view was that it took Ireland out of the equation as a major issue in the politics of the United Kingdom.

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Now, as a direct result of the Brexit decision, the Irish Border is back at the centre of British politics thanks to the Conservative Party which was directly responsible for devising it in the first place. It would be poetic justice if the party fractured as a direct result of the commitment to maintain a frictionless border.

This time round there is one big difference with the politics of a century ago. Nationalist Ireland now has the backing of most of Europe for its determination to resist the return of a hard border while unionism is dependent on the right wing of the Conservatives.

That does not mean the problem will easily be solved, because at its core it is the issue of national identity. However, it does mean that a sensible approach to the concerns of all the relevant parties is more likely to emerge.

Already the border issue has dragged the British debate in a more sensible direction and away from the control of the hardline Tories who want the most disruptive form of Brexit.

This has come as a result of the way the Border featured as a key issue in the negotiations between the European Union and the UK. That paved the way for the EU summit in Brussels on Thursday to clear the path for talks on a trade deal.

Kerfuffle

The kerfuffle over whether the first phase deal reached last Friday is legally binding or not is a distraction from the central point which is that the rest of the EU will back the Irish demand that it is honoured in the event of a failure to agree in phase two of the negotiations dealing with future trading relationships.

The inclusion in the deal of a commitment to regulatory alignment on both sides of the Border after Brexit has made the question of regulatory alignment for the entire UK a more realistic political option for British prime minister Theresa May to pursue as the negotiations with the EU continue.

Some form of regulatory alignment between the EU and the whole UK after Brexit is what this country really needs and there is now a much greater chance of it happening as a result of last Friday’s agreement.

The fundamental conundrum is how the British commitment to avoid a hard border on the island of Ireland can be squared with the commitment to the unionists not to have any divergence between the North and the rest of the UK.

The one obvious way to square that circle is for the UK to find a way of maintaining regulatory alignment with the EU after Brexit and David Davis appears to have recognised this.

His 16 months in the post of Brexit secretary has seen Davis move from being an ardent proponent of a hard Brexit, with no deal if necessary, to being an advocate for parting on the best possible terms with the EU.

This change of heart has been prompted not so much by British worries about the Border but because the penny has dropped with many of the Leave campaigners that the harder the Brexit the more damage that is going to be inflicted on the UK.

Realistic appraisal

The slowdown in economic growth and the latest rise in inflation in Britain mean that the impact of Brexit is beginning to bite and that appears to have prompted a more realistic appraisal of the options across the political spectrum.

UK Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn, who is as hostile to the EU as any right-wing Tory, has also modified his position and it seems that the bulk of moderate Labour MPs are beginning to make their presence felt.

May has shown herself more resilient than anybody expected after her traumatic election disaster earlier in the year. Having got this far she may now have the confidence to steer her government towards the best kind of deal possible.

To reach that goal she will have to face down the Tory right at some stage but she has proved adept at playing for time. If she picks her moment well she might not have as much trouble as generally expected in dealing with the public school toffs who have dragged their country into such a mess.