Oliver Callan: Meet the new Leo - same as the old Leo

During the last big freeze, in 2010, there was a record temperature fluctuation. The mercury went from minus 13 to plus 12 degrees in two December days. Taoiseach Leo Varadkar’s dramatic twist in fortunes equal that great thaw. He went from chilly accusations of poor judgement over the Frances Fitzgerald emails issue to Brexit Braveheart in a handful of days. His party is 11 points ahead of Fianna Fáil and his approval rating now matches Enda Kenny’s peak popularity.

It certainly didn’t seem like it at the time, but the Fitzgerald fiasco proved to be the making of Leo, our ‘Doctor without Hard Borders’ Taoiseach.

When his predecessor had a bad week, he disappeared. That made Varadkar’s reaction all the more stark. He did the opposite of an Enda and entered the bear pit of an interview with Marian Finucane on RTÉ radio. We’re not used to seeing a Taoiseach volunteer for a one-hour Finucane thumping and emerge unscarred.

It was the ideal prep for the stand-off that would ensue over the Border issue. A new Leo emerged, except it was the old Leo. He reverted to the straight-talking persona that made his name in the first place. His sharp and brawny speech reacting to the collapse of the Border deal won widespread praise and coverage. It was an important personal victory. Before this, Varadkar was seething over what he saw as excessive analysis of his social media activity. He privately fumed that speeches he worked hard on attracted much less attention.

Martyn Turner

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Trivial nonsense

During the Finucane interview he said: “If I’m sending out a Facebook message it might require about 10 seconds of thought for me but other people spend an hour getting paid to write an article about it, which I find funny.” Our ears were burning. The trivial nonsense on social media has since ended. When he was asked about wearing sleeveless gym gear on the morning of the EU-UK deal, he rightly dismissed it and requested “serious” questions only.

Despite leading a fragile minority Government, Varadkar is now an unstoppably popular Taoiseach who can never again be dismissed as untested or inexperienced

The Irish Times poll that showed a surge for the Taoiseach and his party was taken over the course of those days. It's no harm that the Brexiteer catastrofeck made his Government look competent, despite a string of crises at home. A procession of DUP boiled-ham faces condemning him boosted his popularity at home even more, much like the the Sun's ribbing did last month.

Varadkar’s decision to maintain a tough line and not deviate from the original deal wasn’t an easy one. As if to demonstrate, Fianna Fáil’s bizarrely low-key Brexit man, Stephen Donnelly, was on radio telling it as it wasn’t. He said the DUP’s concerns had to be listened to and called on the Government to be more “conciliatory”. It was pitiful stuff, the exact opposite of the approach Fianna Fáil was forced to welcome a few days later.

Varadkar’s address to mark the Brexit Border deal on Friday was his finest moment. Voters badly needed this national ego boost, a rare triumph over unionist and Tory figures who have been sneering at the Republic for weeks. He even wondrously trolled them with a Churchill quote. Ouch. Throughout his handling of Brexit, we’ve seen him treat the British as equals in a way we could never imagine Kenny doing. It’s harder to picture earnest but dull Micheál Martin doing it either. Varadkar’s rather doctorly brand of self-confidence, often mistaken as arrogance, has benefited him.

Unstoppably popular

The Border issue has also proved to be the making of Tánaiste Simon Coveney. At one stage, Arlene Foster described him as “aggressive”. Coveney, who has all the malevolence of a damp Rich Tea biscuit, aggressive? It was proof the DUP really had lost its grip on reality. Despite leading a fragile minority Government, Varadkar is now an unstoppably popular Taoiseach who can never again be dismissed as untested or inexperienced.

But he shouldn’t stop with Brexit. There are a list of domestic problems as long as Sammy Wilson’s face that could do with some of Varadkar’s newly-found negotiating expertise. On housing, it would be nice to see him call in supersized landlords and get them to agree to stricter controls to protect tenants and prevent rents rising far above the limits legislation promised. He might call in the funds industry too and work out a deal to see them release land for development, in return for the tax gifts they’ve enjoyed.

Then, at the last, he and that aggressive beast of a Tánaiste of his could eyeball the delinquent parts of the minority coalition and get the Dáil legislating again. The Brexit triumph has seen the Taoiseach’s approval rating soar to 53 per cent. That’s a lot of goodwill that he ought put to good use.