The political landscape in Ireland and across the rest of the EU will be transformed if Donald Trump proceeds with his threat to annex Greenland. The petty squabbles that dominate so much of what passes for politics in Leinster House will pale into insignificance.
The big question in the months ahead is not whether Michéal Martin will face a challenge to his leadership from some disgruntled backbenchers, but how the Taoiseach and his Ministers will respond to a direct attack from the US on Denmark, a fellow EU member state.
Such an action by the US would destroy Nato, the military alliance that has kept western Europe safe for the past 60 years, and would also have the capacity to wreck the EU unless the member states band firmly together and do all in their power to resist US aggression.
Europe does not have the military capacity to resist a US seizure of Greenland, but it does have the ability to fight back through politics and trade in a way that could make the US pay dearly for its decision to behave like a predatory imperial power.
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After a meeting his German and Polish counterparts two days ago, French foreign minister Jean-Noël Barrot revealed they had discussed a joint European response to Trump’s threats and said the discussions would be widened to all European partners.
“What is at stake is the question of how Europe, the EU, can be strengthened to deter threats, attempts on its security and interests,” Barrot said.
“Greenland is not for sale, and it is not for taking. The age when you could buy and sell Louisiana is over, so the threats must stop,” he added, referring to France’s 1803 sale of the vast territory to the US for $15 million, which almost doubled the size of the country.
Ireland’s only option is to join with our fellow EU members and do all in our power to resist any US aggression. There are likely to be severe economic consequences for standing up to Trump, at least in the short term, but the future peace and prosperity of the continent requires it.
The Taoiseach has been clear about his approach in recent days, emphasising that Greenland “is part of Denmark and the European Union is rock-solid behind Denmark”. During an official visit to China, he said common sense needed to prevail and he also pointed out that the US has had a military base in Greenland for a long time.
[ Marco Rubio to meet Danish officials as Greenland crisis escalatesOpens in new window ]
Martin emphasised that the territorial integrity of the enormous island was a matter for Denmark and the population of Greenland and it was neither realistic nor possible for the US to buy the island. Minister for Foreign Affairs Helen McEntee took a similar line, saying simply that Greenland is not for sale and its sovereignty and future could only be decided by its people.
While it doesn’t have the military might of the US, the EU does have enormous power if its members stick together. With its single market of more than 400 million people, potentially expanded by another 300 million if the Mercosur deal goes ahead, the US could be made to pay dearly in a trade war.
What has been holding the EU back from a more robust response to Trump is the need to keep him sweet so that the US does not abandon Ukraine. However, the future of the EU itself is on the line unless there is a firm and united response to any attempt to seize Greenland.
A united Europe could force Trump to think twice about his senseless threat. There has been an American military presence in Greenland since the second World War. A 1951 defence agreement with Denmark gave the US a significant role there, including the right to build and maintain more military bases.
Trump’s desire to annex the territory is not based on any strategic advantage for the US and is nothing more than another vainglorious piece of buffoonery. There are signs that at least some senior figures in the US are beginning to push back against the president’s dangerous approach. On Monday, the bipartisan Friends of Denmark group in the US Congress released a statement saying annexing Greenland would be dangerous and could trigger a civil war among Nato members.
Then on Wednesday, Democrat congressman Ted Lieu warned that there was no legal justification, whatsoever, to use military force against a Nato ally like Greenland. “If any military member participates in this without congressional authorisation, they are following illegal orders,” he said.
[ Trump wants Greenland - what’s to stop him taking it?Opens in new window ]
Polish foreign minister Radosław Sikorski, one of the shrewdest politicians in Europe, has taken up this theme and called on the US Congress to weigh in on the issue. “The topic of territories, of war and peace, belongs to the US Congress. I want to know what is the position of the US Congress on Greenland.”
Domestic politics may ultimately deter Trump from pursuing his Greenland adventure, but the EU has been warned that it needs to ready itself to deal with an increasingly hostile US in the years ahead.
