A shift in Irish politics is under way and this group can mop up votes at expense of Fianna Fáil – and Labour, writes NOEL WHELAN
COMMENTATORS AND analysts are struggling to select the sets for the opening scenes of this election campaign. Occasionally, individual constituencies, candidates or new parties break some of the long-established rules of Irish electoral politics. That is what gives our elections their excitement. Now, however, the rulebook must be torn up; there are no givens anymore.
A change of government post-election has never been as certain in Irish electoral history. That Fianna Fáil will fall, and fall dramatically, is also certain but what is less clear is who will benefit from that collapse in Fianna Fáil support?
Nonetheless, some attempt must be made over the next few weeks, hopefully with the assistance of post-Budget polling, to assess where the parties stand before the election campaign proper begins.
This week I want to look first at the prospects of what I have begun calling the “fourth bloc” ie non-Fianna Fáil, non-Fine Gael and non-Labour candidates.
As I define it, this bloc also excludes gene-pool Independents such as Michael Lowry or the Healy-Rae clan. What I am essentially talking about, therefore, is a contingent of TDs and potential TDs made up of Sinn Féin and left-of-centre Independents.
Yesterday, Sinn Féin and two Dublin left-wing Independent TDs, Finian McGrath and Maureen O’Sullivan, established a technical group in the Dáil.
The move will enable them to obtain more speaking time in debates and to participate in the twice-weekly Leaders’ Question sessions where they can challenge the Taoiseach directly.
The arrangement has become possible because of the recent election of Sinn Féin’s Pearse Doherty in the Donegal South West.
One of the most significant shifts in recent polling is the rise of Sinn Féin and Independents. The last Red C poll for The Irish Sun newspaper gave them 25 per cent of the vote (if one allocates 9 of the 11 per cent for Independents to left of centre). It appears that the anti-establishment anger or mood for change in some sectors of the electorate, particularly the young, is looking increasingly beyond the Labour Party for other alternatives.
The impact of this shift may see Sinn Féin gain its largest representation in Dáil Éireann to date. The party fell from a high of five seats in 2002 to 4 in 2007 but could, on these poll figures, be set for more than a dozen seats in 2011.
The party’s capacity to capitalise on this surge has been greatly assisted by the fact that it coincides with two significant happenings for Sinn Féin. The Pearse Doherty win in Donegal South West and the decision to deploy Gerry Adams south of the Border came just at the right time with the former likely to prove more significant for the party’s improved positioning in the Republic than the latter.
Although only a wet week in the Dáil, Doherty has already made a significant impression as the party’s new finance spokesman.
In considering how real the momentum for the growth of the “fourth bloc” might be, it is worth noting that two of the three byelections held since 2007 were won by such candidates: Doherty in Donegal South West and O’Sullivan who succeeded Tony Gregory in Dublin Central. Even in Dublin South in June 2009, the only byelection won by a main party was won by a non-political candidate, George Lee.
It also worth noting that candidates from the “fourth bloc” polled more than half a quota in over a third of the 43 constituencies in 2007, which means the swing required for a real breakthrough is not massive.
Sinn Féin got more than half a quota in nine constituencies last time out. These include, obviously, the four where it retained seats, namely, Cavan-Monaghan, Louth, Dublin South Central and Kerry North.
The others are Dublin South West where Sean Crowe lost out, Donegal South West, Donegal North East, Dublin North West and Dublin Mid West.
Sinn Féin also secured almost a half quota in Sligo-Leitrim North.
In four other constituencies, Sinn Féin put in a mediocre performance but could still contend for a seat next time. David Cullinane polled just over a third of a quota in Waterford, which is more open this time around.
Maurice Quinlavin got only a quarter of a quota in Limerick East but has had a much-enhanced profile since, not least because of his cameo role in Willie O’Dea’s fall from Cabinet.
Brian Stanley got 0.4 of a quota in Laois-Offaly in 2007 but recent polling shows him improving dramatically.
Finian McGrath, who signed up to the new group yesterday, also polled more than half a quota in 2007 in Dublin North Central and he looks set for re-election perhaps even if Labour also secures a seat in his constituency. Three others are former TDs who look set for a Dáil return: Joe Higgins polled 0.6 of a quota in a three-seat Dublin West in 2007 and is well placed to win a seat in what is now a four-seater while both Catherine Murphy in Kildare North and Seamus Healy in Tipperary South polled 0.6 of a quota and look strong for 2011.
The other fourth-bloc candidate who came relatively close in 2007 was Richard Boyd Barrett with half a quota in the five-seat Dún Laoghaire constituency. It is now a four-seater but he will still be a contender.