Reform must accompany regime change in Zimbabwe

WorldView:How Robert Mugabe has fallen. Little over a decade ago, the president of Zimbabwe was the toast of the western world. A charismatic former freedom fighter, immensely popular in Africa, he was held up as an example of the kind of leader his continent needed - clever, confident and seemingly committed to democracy.

Today Mugabe's international reputation is in tatters. Any chance of rehabilitation has been killed by his latest brutal attack on the opposition leadership.

Images of a badly scarred Morgan Tsvangirai being paraded outside court with other bruised and beaten members of the Movement for Democratic Change (MDC) have provoked anger and profound sadness worldwide.

With hindsight, western governments can see that Mugabe made a fool of them.

His army's killing of an estimated 20,000 civilians from the minority Ndebele tribe in the early 1980s had generally been perceived as the unfortunate by-product of Zimbabwe's otherwise peaceful transition to independence. Now the deaths look far more like ethnic cleansing, and the start of a pattern of repression that continues today.

Mugabe's anti-British rhetoric, and his intolerance of homosexuals and other minorities, had also been seen as minor foibles in the early 1990s. Now they are revealing windows to his psyche.

The West, undoubtedly, put too much hope in Mugabe. However, it could make a similar mistake by thinking Zimbabwe's problems can be solved by simply getting rid of the once-feted ruler.

Of course Mugabe must go. Even members of his own government acknowledge the game is up for Comrade Bob. However, as in other failing states, there is a risk that regime change without reform will lead to greater bloodshed and terror.

In a new report on Zimbabwe, the International Crisis Group (ICG), a respected conflict-resolution think tank, makes the case for a more sophisticated approach than mere "decapitation".

Released just days before Tsvangirai and his followers were so brutally attacked by police, the report said Zimbabwe was approaching a critical juncture in its history.

It stressed, however: "Zimbabwe's problems do not begin and end with Mugabe . . . A deal that merely removed Mugabe while in effect maintaining the political status quo by keeping Zanu-PF in power would be no change at all." An immediate concern is who would replace Mugabe under a proposed Zanu-PF/MDC powersharing agreement. As the ICG pointed out, all obvious successors "have dark spots on their records".

Rural housing minister Emmerson Mnangagwa, who leads the most vocal anti-Mugabe faction, has been badly implicated in Operation Murambatsvina, the demolition of thousands of supposedly unauthorised dwellings in mainly MDC-controlled areas. Mugabe loyalist Gideon Gono, the reserve bank governor, and vice-president Joyce Mujuru - seen by many as the best compromise candidate within Zanu-PF - are both tainted by mismanagement of the economy.

Former finance minister Simba Makoni is perhaps the most palatable option for western governments and opposition groups.

However, in the words of the ICG, he too "bears responsibility for some of the disastrous economic decisions when he was in government as well as for repression during his current term on the Zanu-PF politburo".

And Tsvangirai is a divisive figure - even within the opposition. Among other things, he has struggled to shake off allegations of orchestrating rough "policing" tactics within the MDC.

Beyond a credible leader, Zimbabwe needs to reverse the tide of corruption that has enveloped the upper echelons of its society, as well as to strengthen the rule of law from the boardroom to the street corner. Respect for human rights is at an all-time low - and could feasibly get worse if Zimbabwe's trigger-happy security authorities try to fill any political vacuum.

Meanwhile, the economy is in free-fall with inflation potentially exceeding 4,000 per cent by the year's end, according to the International Monetary Fund.

The quickest way to reverse the decline might be to invite the thousands of white farmers expelled from the country since 2000 back to their land. But even in a post-Mugabe era, this is unlikely to receive political backing.

Despite the obstacles, there are signs of hope. Zanu-PF is to decide later this month on whether to endorse an extension of Mugabe's term in office. A critical parliamentary vote on the same awaits in July.

Ironically, last Sunday's attacks on Tsvangirai and Arthur Mutambara - the respective leaders of the MDC's two main factions - may serve to unite the opposition party, and mobilize the public for a long talked about "final push".

This week's diplomatic manoeuvrings in Africa are also of significance. The presidents of Ghana, which is chairing the African Union, and Tanzania - acting on behalf of the Southern African Development Community - have voiced concern about events in Zimbabwe.

Western governments have introduced sanctions against Zimbabwe but further action could be taken. The ICG noted that money from western donors to pro-democracy groups had all but "dried up".

The US and EU could put pressure on China - notably silent over the latest atrocities of its newfound African ally.

The big question is whether Mugabe can be persuaded to depart, presumably with the promise of a hefty living allowance and an amnesty from prosecution for the Ndebele killings and other crimes.

Late last year the octogenarian completed work on a 25-bedroom private mansion north of Harare - his largest residence yet. He continues to sustain a military and economic protectorate around him through bribes and bullying.

These are not the actions of a ruler who is looking to exit the political stage quietly.