Yesterday's bombing atrocities in Iraq, directed at Shia Muslim worshippers on their most holy day in their most holy places, are a clear attempt to provoke a civil war between different religious and ethnic communities there.
The most bloody day since the war concluded, it comes just as an interim basic law determining Iraq's political transition to self-rule was agreed by members of the governing council appointed by the United States.
These horrifying attacks are intended to disrupt fledgling democratic politics ahead of the handing back of sovereignty to Iraqis on June 30th. This would be followed by elections to a transitional assembly by January 31st, 2005 at the latest, which would work on a constitution and plan full elections by the end of that year. Much remains to be worked out in this political transition, notably on the respective roles of the United States and United Nations in organising and overseeing it. But undoubted progress has been made in recent months, under the impact of an emerging political process within Iraq itself and reflecting, too, intense international diplomacy on the country's future.
From both points of view there is a converging agreement that a stable, sovereign and united Iraq must be a central priority. These suicide bombings and rocket attacks are directed against such an outcome. Responsibility for them was attributed yesterday to remnants of the Saddam Hussein regime (which supported the minority Sunni Islamic tradition and banned such Shia celebrations), in alliance with elements of the al-Qaeda organisation which organised the attacks in the United States on September 11th, 2001. A letter recently intercepted by US forces from Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, who has organised many attacks on them, to the al-Qaeda leader Bin Laden, has the ring of truth. It attacked multiculturalism and Kurdish separatism and warned that the Shias would succumb to the illusion of sovereignty and democracy fed to them by the Americans. It advocated provoking a civil war to prevent this succeeding. Nevertheless experts say its tone and style confirm al-Qaeda has no significant presence in Iraq.
Neither the surviving Ba'athists nor fundamentalist Sunnis have an interest in seeing Iraq make a successful political transition. Its emerging success has been very much facilitated by the political skills of the Shia religious leader, Ayatollah al-Sistani. He refused to drop the demand for elections before a transfer of sovereignty until there was United Nations confirmation that they are not practicable in the immediate future. The US occupation authority had no option but to meet this condition. In the same way the progressive compromises made in the new basic law reflect a burgeoning political process which must be encouraged and protected from extremism over coming months. Ayatollah al-Sistani yesterday warned that US forces are not providing sufficient security and blamed them for delays in restoring Iraqi police and military forces. Now more than ever he must be listened to.