IT IS arguable that the Taoiseach has made the right decision in “the uniquely serious circumstances in which we find ourselves”, as he put it. Brian Cowen, with the full support of his Fianna Fáil Ministers, will proceed to publish the four-year plan with the €15 billion “adjustment” tomorrow, a budget containing €6 billion in cuts on December 7th and the necessary measures to bring it into effect thereafter. He will seek a general election early in the new year. So, after months of denial, mismanagement and crude dissimulation, the life of this Coalition Government can now be measured in weeks.
Unpalatable though it may be, it is damaging to the national interest to change horses in the negotiations on a bailout from the European Union, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at this time. It should have occurred many weeks ago.
That being said, the manner in which the Green Party Ministers finally faced up to their responsibilities and found that they had lost faith in their Fianna Fáil colleagues made for a stunning, if somewhat dishonest, start to the week. Green Party leader John Gormley described the decision to force a general election as being in the national interest. So it is. One suspects, however, that his announcement was motivated more by a desire to offer his party a chance of staving-off electoral disaster. Junior partners in coalition arrangements do better when they force a contest on a specific issue rather than wait for the axe to fall. In this instance, trust broke down within Government because of its handling of the financial rescue package. Green Party Ministers were kept largely in the dark, according to Mr Gormley. Pity that he didn’t say so earlier.
The harshness of the language is unforgiving. But, after three years of committed cohabitation in government, voters may not be impressed. There is no denying the Green Party’s bad luck in entering government at a time of economic crisis. It supported difficult and unpopular decisions. But it shared in a failed and inadequate response to the banking crisis. Now, in a statement of resignation, Mr Gormley has sought all-party support for harsh economic measures that will be decided by Government and overseen by the EU/IMF. The absence of detailed consultation with the Opposition parties makes this scenario seem unreal.
The Green Party’s action in forcing a general election will bring Brian Cowen’s leadership of Fianna Fáil to an end. For the past year and more, his survival has rested on the vain hope that the economy and the party’s electoral prospects would improve. The bailout has dashed those expectations. He may be expected to shoulder the fallout from an unpopular budget before making way for a successor.
We now have a parliamentary situation without precedent in uniquely serious circumstances. And yet, the Labour leader believes that we do not have to agree €6 billion in budget cuts. He said yesterday: “We’re now out of the markets, so who now is the six billion meant to convince or meant to impress?” Who is in denial now?