A Chara, - Steven King's analysis of the demographic situation in the North (August 1st) is very much open to question. He states that not only will there be "no Catholic majority in Northern Ireland" but also no nationalist majority. While the first statement is perhaps true in the short term, the longer term presents quite a different picture. Birth rates can go up as well as down, as Sweden has shown recently, and no-one can say at this stage that the Catholic birth rate will not, in some future period, again exceed that of the non-Catholic population.
Another unknown is the effect of mixed marriages. If a greater proportion of the children of such marriages are reared as Catholics, this will lead to an increase in the Catholic proportion of the population.
Mr King's reference to "differential emigration rates" is intriguing. Why, in an era of equality of employment, should there be any such differential rate? On the contrary, being more likely to attend British universities, I imagine a higher proportion of Protestants will leave Northern Ireland in the future.
History has shown that, over the long term, colonies have a tendency to merge with their host populations, except where they totally outnumber them. The experience of the Protestant population in the South is one of gradual merging, on political, cultural and "identity" levels. Given the larger size and concentration of the Protestant population in the North, this effect may be slower there, but there will be a contant whittling around the edges. Given the almost equal balance between the two main groups that we already see, the long-term effect can only be a slight tipping in favour of cultural Catholicism.
The allied question of the impossibility of a nationalist majority, raised by Mr King, is equally open to question. What is certain, however, is that shortly there will no longer be a Unionist majority. For a period, long or short, we will see a hung electorate, with the Alliance Party holding the balance. This is already the case on Belfast City Council. During this period the policy of the Alliance Party will be crucial, and given its commitment to parity of esteem, it is likely that Northern Ireland, regardless of its constitutional position, will becomes less "British" and more "Irish".
In a sense Mr King may be correct. Perhaps many nationalist voters do not actively seek a constitutionally united Ireland, but rather a much stronger recognition of the Irishness of Northern Ireland, along with closer ties with the South. But this is precisely what Unionism has always strived to avoid. If it keeps trying to suppress any manifestation of Irish identity, it will push nationalists into a stronger desire for a constitutional united Ireland as the only means of achieving just recognition of their Irishness.- Is mise, Ian Livingstone, Hoeilaart, Belgium.