Challenge Of Climate Change

Sir, - Paul Edison (February 14th) accuses me of both arrogance and ignorance for "stating that global climate change is a completely…

Sir, - Paul Edison (February 14th) accuses me of both arrogance and ignorance for "stating that global climate change is a completely unsubstantiated argument".

Were he to read my letter again carefully, Mr Edison might grasp that I never made any such claim. The evidence does indeed indicate that global surface temperatures are rising, and at no point did I dispute this (far from denying climate change, I pointed out that it is the historical norm). What I actually claimed were unsubstantiated were the arguments of another contributor to your letters page, who postulated a connection between recent flooding in the west and global climate change and went on to warn that "all the world's climate models are showing that extreme weather events will, unfortunately, become no longer extreme, but normal . . . This way disaster lies, and we will run into it as extreme weather".

The truth is that future climate cannot be predicted with any certainty. As is pointed out in the latest edition of the World Climate Report, with few exceptions (such as Bill Gray's Atlantic hurricane forecasts), decades of effort on the part of climatologists have failed to overcome the fact that climate elements are not predictable over large regions of the globe even one month in advance, let alone several years or decades ahead.

Mr Edison goes on to argue that I am "obviously . . . not aware of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change". Actually, I have followed the deliberations of this body very closely since its first report in 1990. Indeed, in an era when the bearded, sandal-wearing environmentalist of the past has given way to the slick, soundbiting, media-savvy environmentalist of today, it would be almost impossible not to be aware of the more apocalyptic forecasts of the IPCC.

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I am also aware, however, that UN climate dogma has been challenged by many within the scientific community. At the time of the Kyoto accord, world leaders received a letter signed by over 500 scientists from 20 countries who argued against limiting energy use to control greenhouse gas emissions. The number of signatures - gathered by two non-profit groups, the Europeans Science and Environment Forum and the Advancement for Sound Science Coalition - subsequently grew considerably.

Mr Edison concludes that, with regard to the climate change debate, "the case is indeed closed". Only for the truly ignorant. - Yours, etc.,

Damian Byrne, Belveldere Place, Mountjoy Square, Dublin 1.