Some of the new Independents appear a lot closer to Fine Gael’s aspirations than do most Labour TDs
MOST DEPRESSING event of the week: I had to ring someone in RTÉ and ask them to explain what a “Stickie” is, or was, and what on earth this ancient row has to do with coalition negotiations. A political journalist had said to me, “Look, Eamon Gilmore is a Stickie. If he makes an agreement, he’ll stick with it.”
It sounded reassuring, and forgive me if mostly what I want these days is a bit of reassurance. On the other hand, it’s pretty bad if the governance of the country today is being fought in terms of a monumental battle for Montrose 30 years ago. My Deep Throat in Donnybrook says Stickies were the good guys. More reassurance.
But otherwise, it hasn’t been a great week. On Saturday morning I heard an independent radio news headline: “Fine Gael has failed to win an overall majority in the election, while Labour has had its best result ever.” It could just as easily have said: “Fine Gael and Labour have had their best results ever.” On Monday morning after a busy weekend broadcasting, I woke up deflated. The headline was right. Fine Gael failed to get an overall majority.
I think as the mirage of a majority appeared on the horizon, everyone panicked. Labour lobbed in the “Single-party government – No thanks” grenade. Key voters reconsidered their choice. It wasn’t just the thought of an overall majority that concerned them. I know Dublin liberals who late on switched from Fine Gael to Labour because they calculated that Fine Gael candidates were safe and Labour needed protecting on their left flank.
Fine Gael strategists kept indecent thoughts of single-party government to themselves and played down the risk publicly, sounding calm. There was another way to play it. Sound just as calm and say “Single-party government – Yes please”. Imagine if Fine Gael had not won an overall majority simply because they did not ask for it?
Oh well. It’s easy looking back now. To win a majority you need to plan six months ahead. Six weeks ago the mere notion seemed preposterous. So we are where we are: where the numbers seem to dictate that only a Fine Gael-Labour coalition will work. But I’m still not convinced numerical supremacy is the key to stability. Ideological cohesion seems just as important.
Is an alternative possible? Fine Gael has 76 seats and needs another eight or nine to be safe. They could try appointing a ceann comhairle from the opposition, which would help. Then there’s Shane Ross, Stephen Donnelly, Michael Lowry, Michael Healy-Rae, Noel Grealish and Luke “Ming” Flanagan, who appear a lot closer to Fine Gael than most Labour TDs. Catherine Murphy, Finian McGrath, Maureen O’Sullivan or the former Fianna Fáilers might talk, though they aren’t on the same page.
Mick Wallace has said he’s not interested in a deal, but perhaps he needs time to contemplate the futility of being just another Independent on the opposition benches. Of course, his financial future still hangs in the balance, and a bankruptcy would force him out of office. So while a Fine Gael-Independent coalition is possible, it is also precarious. This leaves us with a rather obvious belt-and-braces back-up plan.
Micheál Martin said during the election he would consider a reverse-Tallaght strategy, whereby Fianna Fáil would support the government from the opposition benches. I really think this offer has not been given due consideration. There are risks for everyone involved, but let me point out some of the advantages.
It would allow Labour to achieve what they say they want – a true left-right split in Irish politics. Calling Fianna Fáil’s bluff on their claims to put the country first could be a smart move long-term, even if it meant abandoning much-coveted power now. Leading the opposition would help protect them from Sinn Féin, which otherwise would leverage their election success to Labour’s detriment.
A new Tallaght strategy would deprive Fianna Fáil of leading the opposition, but it would help them carve out an identity and make them appear responsible among a array of headbanging bondholder-burning solo artists whose redundancy will become apparent as time goes on. Fianna Fáil lost middle class business votes to Fine Gael in this election. A Tallaght strategy might help win them back.
For Fine Gael, there is a risk of being tainted with the toxicity of Fianna Fáil, but it would mean they’d be liberated from the death of a thousand compromises with Labour. The airwaves were full of Labour TDs and trade unionists all week issuing threats. I know, or rather I hope, I’m overstating worries about a five-year war, but it’s hardly a good start.
Still, if a deal can be done to which the Stickies will stick, and we get a government that can act decisively and with authority, no one will be more relieved than me. But I’m a great believer in the importance of giving oneself as many choices as possible.
If I were Enda Kenny I’d give someone in Fine Gael the job of maintaining channels to the alternative. It might come in useful in the future. There are still big waves building to crash into this ailing country. A spare lifeboat can’t be any harm.