Paul Kagame, who has just won his fourth term as Rwandan president, gets the sort of vote that we used to associate with elections in Eastern Europe in the days of Soviet rule: 99 per cent support, like last time in 2017, with a turnout of 98 per cent of the nine million-plus electorate. Then and now such mandates could never, however, be said to be true expressions of popular feeling.
The two rivals who were allowed to contest Monday’s election won 0.53 per cent and 0.32 per cent respectively of the votes. Others were prohibited from running, ostensibly because of dubious criminal convictions. Human rights groups say that arbitrary arrests and persecution of opposition figures were widespread and accuse the regime of using its agents to kill political opponents at home and abroad.
There is no doubt, however, that the strong-man president, who has done much to boost the Rwandan economy, health care and education systems, retains a popular base. The opposition disputes claims of an economic miracle, saying official figures for an economy dominated by his Rwandan Patriotic Front are manipulated.
Kagame successfully saw through a constitutional referendum in 2017 suspending term limits, allowing him potentially to remain in office until 2034. He first became Rwanda’s vice-president after leading the guerrilla force that halted the 1994 genocide of the country’s Tutsi population by Hutu extremists in which 800,000 died.
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Despite unease internationally about his legitimacy and human rights record, western powers see Kagame as a firm and reliable ally, although he faces strong criticism over his country’s backing of the insurgent guerilla group M23 fighting a prolonged and brutal civil war in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.
Kagame’s government is also facing scrutiny over its insistence that it has no intention of repaying the hundreds of millions of pounds it received from the outgoing British Tory government for its controversial, now-scrapped scheme to house deported asylum seekers.