The Irish Times view on the latest IEA report on emissions: some more encouraging news

Good news about greenhouse gas emissions – the main cause of global warming -– is rare indeed. But the latest report from the International Energy Agency gives some cause for optimism of the glass half-full variety.

The bad news is that annual CO2 emissions from the energy system – both generation and consumption – were at a record level of 37.4 billion tons in 2023.

The good news is that they grew by 1.1 per cent year on year, down from 1.3 per cent in 2022. And the even better news is that, according to the IEA, emissions are seeing a structural slowdown, with an average growth of 0.5 per cent per year over the last 10 years, which is the slowest rate since the Great Depression of the 1930s.

Were it not for a shortfall in global hydropower generation due to droughts, then emissions from the global electricity sector would have fallen in 2023.

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The key takeaway from the report is that, although emissions are growing, the rate of growth is being limited by green technologies – particularly in advanced economies – and the peak may be in sight.

It would be foolhardy to overplay the significance of the positive news contained in the IEA report. This is not least because the energy system accounts for only 75 per cent of total greenhouse gas emissions. The report itself has many caveats; demand for coal is back to levels not seen for many years and emissions continue to grow strongly in China and India.

The IEA report has also to be put in the context of the warning by the United Nations Environmental Programme last November, in the run up to COP28 in Dubai, that cuts in annual emissions of 28 per cent are needed by 2030 to avoid climate catastrophe. But it is also important to give people hope. Climate change fatigue in the face of the apparently insurmountable difficulties involved in stopping global warming is a real problem. Positive news such as the IEA report, when appropriately framed, can provide a much-needed tonic .