David Cameron’s decision to allow cabinet ministers to campaign on either side of the referendum on EU membership may have been an unavoidable consequence of his weak authority over the Conservative Party, but it is nonetheless regrettable. It can only increase the likelihood that Britain will leave the EU, enabling the anti-EU side to recruit high-calibre advocates from within the government.
Officially, Mr Cameron is waiting until his renegotiation of Britain’s EU membership is complete before deciding which side in the referendum he will back. In truth, it is all but certain that he will lead the campaign to remain in the EU, and he has already started rehearsing some of the key arguments. Britain’s European partners want to keep Britain inside and they will seek to accommodate most of Mr Cameron’s reform demands when they are discussed at a summit in Brussels next month, opening the way to a referendum as early as June.
The Conservative Party remains deeply divided on Europe, with many of Mr Cameron’s MPs already determined to campaign to leave. At least six cabinet ministers are likely to join them, and some of those were willing to resign rather than accept collective responsibility by campaigning to stay in the EU. The prime minister, who has promised to step down before the next election in 2020, not only feared the loss of some of his most senior ministers but concluded that forcing them to resign would make reuniting the party after the referendum more difficult. By giving them a free vote, however, he has removed any political disincentive for Conservative MPs, inside or outside the cabinet, to join the Leave campaign.
Among the Leave campaign's current disadvantages is its lack of high-profile figures, apart from Ukip leader Nigel Farage, who could do as much harm as good. In a single stroke, Mr Cameron has liberated a number of senior politicians who can provide all the gravitas that Mr Farage lacks. Some ambitious Conservatives may calculate that, far from damaging their future prospects, a leading role in the Leave campaign could boost their chances in the leadership election that will follow Mr Cameron's departure.
The prime minister signalled again this week that one of the strongest arguments he will deploy against leaving the EU is that it would not only threaten Britain’s prosperity but its national security. As his adversaries will no doubt point out, the prime minister does not, however, consider this threat to be great enough to demand that cabinet ministers work together to prevent it.
As Jeremy Corbyn's tortuous reshuffle of the Labour front bench this week illustrated, both of Britain's main parties are divided and partly dysfunctional. Mr Corbyn's lack of authority over his MPs is more dramatic, but Mr Cameron's could be much more dangerous for his country.