Concept of elected assembly seems unlikely to go away

WHEN the Mitchell commission on disarmament went to London last week, the election of a Northern Ireland assembly or convention…

WHEN the Mitchell commission on disarmament went to London last week, the election of a Northern Ireland assembly or convention was top of the agenda.

For Mr John Major, it was an idea whose time had come, particularly as it could save his blushes if he was forced to abandon his government's demand for the decommissioning of some IRA arms in advance of all-party talks.

From his point of view, the elected holly had two powerful points in its favour: it was the brainchild of David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist Party leader, and it would provide for Sinn Fein's participation in talks in advance of a decommissioning gesture by the IRA.

Having quietly promoted the idea for months - with little effect - the British government took the bit between its teeth and briefed journalists intensively.

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George Mitchell and his colleagues would address the matter in their report, sources insisted. After all, if they could consider the issue of Washington 3, which was not within their terms of reference, why not an elected assembly?

To help the commission, the British government had already drafted proposals for a 45-seat elected forum, which would help to move the peace process on.

For a time, it looked as if British determination might carry the day. There was an apparent reluctance in Dublin to shut the door completely on the notion. The development might not be welcomed by either John Bruton or Dick Spring, but they did not relish another public disagreement With Mr Major over what the commission could or could not do.

Then Mitchel McLaughlin entered the fray. The national chairman of Sinn Fein told The Irish Times last Friday that republicans would give "very serious consideration" to the proposition of a 45-person forum, if it was not limited to internal matters and was not tantamount to a return to Stormont rule.

The British proposal for a 45-member forum was an acceptance of

Sinn Fein's argument that a 90-member assembly would be unmanageable, he said.

All hell broke loose in nationalist circles. It appeared new ground was being broken and serious divisions were surfacing within Sinn Fein. After all, only a few days earlier, Gerry Adams had rejected the notion of an assembly, or forum, as a "non-runner". John Hume had been equally dismissive on behalf of the SDLP.

Mr McLaughlin initially maintained that his comments did not contradict the regular statements of Mr Adams. But the flexibility reflected in his observations to a number of newspapers made such an explanation untenable.

Observers within the SDLP, Fianna Fail and in Government circles believed he had indulged in something of a solo run. And they were not particularly impressed.

By Saturday morning, as nationalist politicians clamoured to find out what the hell was going on, a second statement was rushed out in Mr McLaughlin's name to explain the "misunderstandings" that had arisen.

This one, Sinn Fein sources agree, made the situation even more confused and it required yet another statement to return it to the status quo.

Any lingering doubts about Sinn Fein's attitude to an elected forum - were knocked on the head by Martin McGuinness in a series of interviews yesterday when he said the organisation would have "absolutely nothing to do with such a body". His language, however, was interesting.

"Many of us," he said, "view the prospect of an elected assembly almost with dismay." Many, but clearly not all?

The reasons given by Mr McGuinness for opposing, an elected body were that it would provide encouragement for unionist parties to remain in their bunkers; that it would stiffen the resolve of those who believed in an internal settlement; that it would detach Dublin from the process and minimise its role in negotiations and that it would delay all-party talks.

In a parallel development, John Hume said there was no way the SDLP would accept an elected body as a means of starting dialogue. With Bertie Ahern holding the "pan-nationalist line" along with Fine Gael and the Labour Party, that seemed to be that.

A Sinn Fein spokesman commented ruefully last night that the whole thing had been a "storm in a teacup"' before adding: "It is over now, thank God."

That may involve a great deal of wishful thinking, for neither John Major nor David Trimble are likely" to give up easily. Their hopes of securing a positive recommendation from the Mitchell commission in favour of an elected body - as a means around the decommissioning logjam - may have been temporarily thwarted, but there is a long road ahead.

SINN FEIN will "clarify" its position on an elected forums when it meets the Mitchell commission this morning. It may also be in a position to advise the chairman that the IRA army council has ordered an end to drugs-related murders, in response to its representations.

From there, it would hope to discuss its proposals for an independent verification of arms decommissioning by paramilitary organisations. And George Mitchell will, no doubt, attempt to establish a link between future political advances and the progressive decommissioning of illegally held weapons.

The commission is expected to make its report on Thursday and there is quiet confidence in Government circles that it will not contain proposals for an elected assembly.

In the meantime - today and on Wednesday - Dick Spring and Patrick Mayhew will hold separate tripartite talks with the SDLP and with Sinn Fein in which those parties are expected to set out their stalls on the way all-party talks can be achieved. While an elected talks forum will not figure at all, the matter has not gone away. Not by a long chalk.