A few thousand people protested in Dublin on Saturday against the military occupation of Iraq by the United States and the provision of facilities for its troops at Shannon airport.
It was part of a world-wide demonstration against the war and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, and the Minister for Foreign Affairs, Mr Cowen, were harshly criticised for supporting President George Bush's on-going "war on terror". The chairman of the Irish Anti-War Movement, Mr Richard Barrett, described the protest as a curtain-raiser for a larger demonstration against the planned visit by President Bush next June.
The relatively small turnout, compared with last year's pre-war protest that attracted an estimated 100,000 people, probably reflected the new military reality and the greater complexity of the situation in the aftermath of the invasion. But that could change if a clear focus for public dissent was provided, such as the planned visit by President Bush. The Government is concerned about the possibility of such a development. And both the Taoiseach and the Tánaiste, Ms Harney, have already cautioned the public against the negative impact street protests could have on Irish/US economic relations.
The past week has seen a hardening of the Government's position in support of the Bush administration. Speeches delivered in Washington and Ottawa robustly defended the provision of facilities at Shannon airport for the US military. And both Mr Ahern and Mr Cowen unequivocally supported President Bush's war on terrorism in the aftermath of the Madrid bombings. A veil was drawn over the Taoiseach's earlier position that the Government had strenuously opposed the war with Iraq. And they said Ireland can now be viewed as a strong US ally in the context of the European Union.
The visit by President Bush coincides with Ireland's presidency of the EU. And, as a friendly facilitator, it will be used by Mr Ahern to try and put EU/US relations back on an even keel in the aftermath of the Iraq war and to repair some of the damage caused by the unilateral decision-making of President Bush. Rather than risk large public protests and the security dangers involved, the Government is expected to advocate a low-key visit. This may involve an out-of-Dublin venue and a shorter-than-expected stay. In the normal course of events, such an arrangement might give diplomatic offence, as all previous visiting US presidents have been entertained in Dublin. But, with a presidential election in the offing, the minimisation of public protests could help President Bush to maximise his Irish-American vote.
There are other considerations. As Mr Ahern and Ms Harney have emphasised, the Irish economy is heavily reliant on high-tech US exports. Some 600 corporations have facilities here, with exports worth €40 billion per annum. In defending those interests, however, the Government must continue to support the primary role of the United Nations in international affairs along with a multilateral approach to decision-taking.