A vain search for the moderate middle class

Newton's Optic: In which Newton Emerson explains how a majority is really a minority, and vice versa

Newton's Optic: In which Newton Emerson explains how a majority is really a minority, and vice versa. Confused? Then you're in the majority. Or the minority.

The vast majority of people in Northern Ireland are set to become a minority, according to early exit polls.

With pundits predicting big gains by Sinn Féin and the DUP in today's Westminster and local government elections, experts have warned that the overwhelming number of people who support a lasting settlement may be smaller than the small number of people opposed to a lasting settlement.

"This could be a slight setback for the peace process," conceded Pat Answer, Professor of Advanced Semantics at Belfast University.

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"Normal people here remain deeply disillusioned with tribal politics, of course. The problem is that apparently there aren't any normal people."

"It is important to see this result in a cross-community context," added leading sociologist Dr Grant Dole. "Everyone still wants peace for their children. They just don't want peace for each other's children."

Although there is no sign that the expected election result will change the way Northerners perceive themselves, it is already affecting the way Northern Ireland is reported in the international press.

"For decades the people of this beautiful land have yearned for a tomorrow free from the fear and bitterness that blighted their lives for so long," wrote a stringer for the Associated Press one last time.

"Sharing a joke and a cup of tea with the women of the West Portadown Community Resource Centre I was moved to tears by their incredible determination, hatred and stupidity," filed a correspondent for Le Monde.

"Up the 'Ra!" added a reporter from the Guardian.

However, it is not all bad news on the media front. With an estimated 49 per cent of the electorate backing the DUP and a further 48 per cent backing Sinn Féin, the remaining 1 per cent of Northern Ireland's population are all expected to find jobs as newspaper columnists, although this figure does include those who are columnists already.

As the polls opened this morning all the centre-ground parties made a last-ditch appeal to Northern Ireland's large moderate middle class, which frequently fails to vote because it does not exist.

"We're offering people a choice between further polarisation or roughly the same level of polarisation," Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble warned in his final election broadcast.

"We're asking voters to turn away from the tired old divisions of the past and look towards the fresh new divisions of the future," said SDLP leader Mark Durkan.

"We don't really exist either," added Alliance Party leader David Ford.

But with Sinn Féin and the DUP expected to win by a landslide, it seems that Northern Ireland is heading for a lengthy era of two-party politics. When asked to comment on how this might work the DUP refused to speak to a Dublin-based newspaper, while Sinn Féin refused to speak to a Protestant reporter.

Despite the concerns of the 1 per cent majority, the Northern Ireland Office remains surprisingly upbeat about prospects for an agreement.

"It is unwise to view support for extremist parties as support for extremism," explained a Stormont official. "By voting for the extremes Northern Ireland's large moderate middle class is sending a clear signal to Sinn Féin and the DUP that they must do business with each other in accordance with the plan we devised four years ago, when we decided it was unwise to view support for centre-ground parties as support for the centre ground."

The British government is also sounding a note of cautious optimism.

"What is still clear is that most people in Northern Ireland want to live in harmony with their neighbours," a Downing Street spokesman told reporters. "What is no longer clear is what we mean by 'most people'."

This was backed up by a statement from Mr Brad Cheeseburger, White House special envoy to Northern Ireland, Southern Sudan, Eastern Timor and Western Sahara. "If we've told Tony Blair this once we've told him a thousand times," said Mr Cheeseburger. "Democracy just doesn't work."

However, most people in Northern Ireland itself appear unperturbed by the outcome of the election.

"Sure it's only 1.7 million eejits ruining it for the rest of us," said an old lady walking a dog through Cullybackey yesterday. "Otherwise this is a great wee place so it is."

Meanwhile, in a completely unrelated development, Minister for the Environment Dick Roche has published new regulations to control contaminated land.

"From now on the Government's position will be absolutely clear," announced the Minister. "Don't expect anyone else to clean up your dump."

Newton Emerson is editor of the satirical website portadownnews.com