If you look across the political waters of the Atlantic or the Irish Sea, you see much the same thing.
In both the US and the UK, leaders elected less than two years ago have seen their popularity plummet. And yet the consequences of this are playing out very differently. While Keir Starmer’s control of the UK Labour Party is slipping away, Donald Trump’s hold over the US Republican Party is tighter than ever. This difference is down to more than just the distinction between a parliamentary system and a presidential one. It’s about more than Starmer’s negligible political skills versus Trump’s magnetic charisma. What allows Trump to defy the laws of political gravity is the passionate, almost cult-like support of his base.
Trump’s approval ratings have dipped to a second-term low of 37 per cent. His disastrous decision to join Israel in a war against Iran has seriously damaged his standing. Only 30 per cent of Americans now think going to war was the right decision. And his popularity probably won’t rebound. The cost-of-living crisis created by the closing of the Strait of Hormuz is only likely to get worse for the president who won re-election on a promise to control inflation. Neither of Trump’s bad options in the war with Iran – a humiliating admission of defeat or an escalation of military hostilities meaning a prolonged oil shock – has much prospect of improving his ratings. The obvious parallel is with George W Bush, who saw his approval ratings plummet from a remarkable 90 per cent after the 9/11 attacks to a low of 25 per cent at the end of his second term, largely due to another catastrophic American war in the Middle East.
Yet, unlike Bush, Trump shows little sign of losing his grip over Republicans.
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Part of this is explained by the fact there is not a lot of room in the party for those who disagree with their leader.
Trump has once again exerted his muscle in the Republican primaries. His endorsements helped unseat two-term incumbent senator Bill Cassidy in Louisiana and seven-term incumbent congressman Thomas Massie in Kentucky. Cassidy had voted for Trump’s impeachment in 2021, while Massie has been a thorn in his side over the Epstein files and the Iran war. The vengeance of the US president extended even down to state legislative elections, where he deposed five of seven Indiana legislators who had voted against his favoured gerrymandering plan. The primary threat is such a big weapon for Trump because most Republicans represent safe districts. Since they are unlikely to lose a general election, a primary challenge is the biggest challenge they face.
Trump derives his power from his continued popularity with his Maga base. So long as they remain willing to support him – including voting against his enemies within the party – he will dominate the Republicans. And although there have been a few high-profile defections from Maga – such as congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene and media personality Tucker Carlson – there are few signs he is losing his popularity with his core supporters.
But Trump does not just lead Maga; he personifies it. “I am Maga,” he famously – and accurately – declared.
This reliance on his base is nothing new. His project has never been a majoritarian one. He has never had an approval rating above 50 per cent as president. Normally it is possible for voters to lose faith in a party leader while continuing to back the party – UK Labour Party members wanting to replace Starmer with Andy Burnham, for example. But no such dynamic operates within a Republican Party that is now wholly dominated by a cult of personality. Maga supporters disappointed with Trump have no place to turn. There is no John McCain waiting in the wings as there was for the Republicans in 2008 after Bush’s popularity fell off a cliff. Psychologically, it is difficult for Maga supporters to believe that Trump has betrayed their cause. Breaking with Trump would mean admitting they had been wrong all along.
Part of it, too, is the sunk-cost fallacy. If Republicans weren’t able to rid themselves of Trump after January 6th, they are unlikely to do so now. Trump was accused of inciting an insurrection at the US Capitol that at the time was opposed by 89 per cent of Americans and led to the deaths of seven people including three police officers. Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell declared Trump “practically and morally responsible” for the violence. A quarter of America’s top 500 companies announced they would not fund any candidate who followed Trump in denying the results of the 2020 election. And yet during the Biden presidency, Trump regained his control over the Republicans by rallying his Maga base behind him, ultimately portraying the January 6th insurrectionists as martyrs.
Much of it is naked self-interest. As former Clinton adviser Sidney Blumenthal said in The Guardian: “Republicans have done more than go along to get along, the old Washington way. They have gone along because by and large they agree with him and have profited off of him even as many Republicans, particularly in the Senate, detest him.”
Although support from his base has anchored Trump’s power within the party, it might yet drag the Republicans down like a sinking ship. His low popularity might not matter in Republican primaries, but it will make a difference in general elections. Democrats now hold a double-digit lead in polls asking who voters will prefer in the congressional midterms in less than five months’ time. If that polling holds up, Democrats should expect to regain control of the House of Representatives in what will not just be a blue wave, but a blue tsunami.
Trump’s strategy of shoring up his base while ignoring his overall popularity has even made it possible for Democrats to regain the Senate. This was previously seen as highly improbable given that Democrats would have to win in solidly Republican states such as Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas. Texas is a particularly telling example. In the Republican primary next Tuesday, Trump has backed scandal-ridden extremist Ken Paxton over incumbent John Cornyn. Presuming Paxton wins, Democrats will be handed a rare chance to win a Senate seat in a state they haven’t won since 1988.
Ultimately, the only thing capable of loosing Trump’s grip on the Republican Party might be his eventual death. But it has long been clear that defeating Trumpism will require it to be beaten at the ballot box convincingly and consistently. And Trump’s plummeting popularity has given Democrats a golden opportunity.
Daniel Geary is Mark Piggott professor in US history at Trinity College Dublin
