Fact-checking the Government’s claims on social housing provision

The big message from the recent release of social housing statistics from the Department of Housing was that output was the highest since the 1970s. Undoubtedly this is great news, but is it true? And just where did this abundance of housing come from?

The peak year of recent Irish council housing output was 1975, when local authorities built some 8,974 houses. This was a remarkable achievement given the economic situation at the time. For 2023, the Department of Housing calculates some 7,433 new-build social houses as having been delivered. Numerically, this is indeed the highest social housing output since 1975, just pipping 1984′s total.

In context, however, comparing 1975′s population of 3.2 million with 2022′s population of 5.1 million, social housing output has actually halved per capita in the intervening period.

In 1975, Ireland’s GDP stood at just over €60 billion at current prices, and interest on borrowings was above 10 per cent. In 2022, interest on borrowing for social housing averages about 3 per cent, GDP is estimated to be over €500 billion, and there is a projected budget surplus of €10 billion for 2023.

Large household size makes Ireland clear outlier in Europe - ESRI report

---

Housing is the top issue for voters, especially those aged 25-34

---

Voters largely unmoved by resignation of Varadkar and elevation of Harris

---

Poll analysis: Housing and immigration are making the headlines, but other topics are becoming more prominent

---

Unlike 1975, social housing in Ireland is now delivered by both councils and approved housing bodies (AHBs). Given the inherent advantages that councils have over AHBs in delivering new-build housing, especially access to State land and cheaper financing, it is interesting to see what exactly councils have been building.

Of the 7,433 new-build social houses in 2023, councils were responsible for building some 1,683, or just under 23 per cent. Indeed, since the start of Simon Coveney’s Rebuilding Ireland policy in mid-2016, councils have built 7,449 new houses, which is less than they did in the 12 months of 1975.

The Achilles heel of our 1970s council housing success is that although the State built 61,953 new council houses in that decade, it also sold some 54,917 to tenants, nearly 90 per cent. It currently sells about 600 per year.

Looking at output by council in more detail, we can see that four councils built no housing at all in 2022: Galway City, Longford, Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown and Kildare. They did, however, buy 137 new houses (off-plans, known as turnkeys). These councils have a combined total of 6,732 households on their social housing waiting list.

[ Fine Gael slips to 20% in new opinion poll amid public anger over housing crisis ]

As would be expected, the largest urban councils delivered the most direct-build new housing. Dublin City Council, South Dublin County Council and Fingal delivered 476 new council houses between them. Between purchases of new houses (turnkeys) and directly-built houses, the four Dublin councils delivered 546 houses in 2022. Their combined social housing waiting list is 24,630.

What’s notable looking at the output is that performance is erratic across councils and over time. In one year, a council might build no houses (for example, Fingal and Cork City in 2021) and the following increase output considerably (Fingal managed 136 in 2022 and Cork City some 152). On the other hand, Kerry County Council has been consistently increasing its output from just 10 social houses in 2017 to 131 new direct builds in 2022 (plus two turnkey houses).

Turnkeys, mostly brand new housing bought before it gets built or comes to market, accounts for 70 per cent of the total “new-build” social housing output in 2022. Councils bought some 1,196 turnkey houses last year. Six councils bought none at all, with Dún Laoghaire-Rathdown buying just two, to add to its zero building output.

AHBs have outperformed councils in delivering new social housing, but with considerably more of their output coming from turnkey housing (3,519) than newly built housing (310). Since 2016, AHBs and councils combined have been buying two new turnkey social houses for every one that is built directly. (Some AHBs reasonably argue that a proportion of what the department categorises as a turnkey is actually a new build, but this is the way the completions are presented.)

Alongside cheaper finance, the biggest advantage councils have over AHBs is access to land.

In April 2017 then minister for housing Simon Coveney launched a map showing potential for 50,000 houses on State land. It identified more than 700 local authority and other sites totalling some 1,700 hectares, as well 30 sites with 200 hectares owned by State or semi-State bodies in urban areas. “This map represents... the opportunity to deliver housing,” he said at the time. The map has long been removed from the link. This year, the Land Development Agency produced a similar map showing the potential for 60,000 new houses.

[ Builders discuss the housing crisis: ‘If this was health, the patients would all be dead’ ]

Total delivery by councils and AHBs since the 2017 map launch has been about 9,500 directly-built new social houses and 18,000 turnkeys, and as the map has disappeared it is unclear how many of these were on the State, local authority and other lands identified.

Social housing delivery statistics over the last nearly seven years shows that although council new-build and turnkey output is up almost tenfold over the period, AHB output is up 16 times. The proposal to abolish development and Irish Water levies for housing, at an average saving of €12,650 per housing unit, is unlikely to deliver housing that is any more affordable for purchasers, but it will inflate the value of residential zoned land by at least 20 per cent. This is welcome if you are a landowner, but not so great if you are a body such as an AHB – on whom the State is increasingly reliant – seeking sites on the open market.

The Government has therefore just made social housing delivery more expensive, while at the same time gifting large landowners significant inflation in their assets’ value. It will also be difficult to unwind this bailout in 12 months’ time.

When in the office of minister for the environment, Alan Kelly said he spent a lot of time rebuilding capacity within councils so they could build houses. What has happened since? When councils build they often do great work. Although their output is up, it is nowhere near where it should be, especially given the resources the State has access to. At current output rates, the social housing waiting list of 57,892 households will take more than half a century to clear – if things stay the same, which they won’t.

Councils don’t have to be the only supplier of new social housing but, given their natural advantages in cheaper financing, expertise and of course land, as well as the control they have over standards, quality and price, shouldn’t they be doing a lot more?

Mel Reynolds is an architect and housing policy analyst. Dr Lorcan Sirr is a senior lecturer in housing at Technological University Dublin