Voters sceptical but not preoccupied with EU will decide outcome

Standing outside No 10 Downing Street on Tuesday, David Cameron spoke directly to the voters who have kept him there for the past six years, the moderate, cautious heart of Middle England.

Sceptical about Europe but not preoccupied with it, these voters are more concerned about quotidian matters such as house prices and economic security than with arcane, ideological arguments over sovereignty.

Cameron opened by restating his central argument of the referendum campaign, that Britain is better off inside the EU than outside.

“Above all, it’s about our economy. It will be stronger if we stay. It will be weaker if we leave. That’s a huge risk to Britain – to British families, to British jobs – and it’s irreversible. There is no going back.”

As he ran through other issues such as national security and Britain’s place in the world, he returned again and again to the same message: leaving the EU is a risk Britain cannot afford to take.

And he included an appeal to national pride, declaring that “Brits don’t quit” but stay on to fight for what they believe in.

Gifted politician

Loathed by many on the Leave side, unloved by others and mistrusted by more, it is tempting to forget what a gifted politician Cameron is. Like

Angela Merkel

, it is the quality which most infuriates many on his own side – his ideological opaqueness and flexibility – which makes him so effective with the public.

Like Merkel, Cameron has been more in tune than many in his party with the shifting attitudes of its core voters, who have become more liberal on issues such as gay rights and cultural diversity while remaining conservative about economic stability.

Many of these voters recoil at the tone of some Leave campaigners, notably that of Nigel Farage, which explains why others on the pro-Brexit side have been so eager to distance themselves from the Ukip leader.

Boris Johnson and Michael Gove have been more strident in their denunciation of Farage's "bigoted" and "xenophobic" rhetoric as the referendum approaches, stressing their embrace of "controlled" immigration and seeking to present an optimistic vision of life outside the EU.

Farage’s tone appeals to Leave supporters who are motivated by anger and a sense they have little to lose even if Brexit is followed by an economic downturn.

The referendum will be decided by those who dislike the EU but are weighing up the consequences of Brexit carefully before they vote.