Nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr on course to win Iraq vote

Powerful nationalist cleric Moqtada al-Sadr was leading in Iraq’s parliamentary election with more than half the votes counted, the electoral commission said, a surprise comeback for a Shia leader who had been sidelined by Iran-backed rivals.

Shia militia chief Hadi al-Amiri’s bloc, which is backed by Tehran, was in second place, according to the count of more than 95 per cent of the votes cast in 10 of Iraq’s 18 provinces.

The preliminary results are a setback for prime minister Haider al-Abadi who, despite entering the election as the apparent frontrunner, appeared to be running third.

Unlike Mr Abadi, a rare ally of both the United States and Iran, Mr Sadr is an enemy of both countries that have wielded influence in Iraq after the US-led invasion that toppled Sunni dictator Saddam Hussein and ushered the Shia majority to power.

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Mr Sadr has led two uprisings against US forces in Iraq and is one of the few Shia leaders to distance himself from Iran.

Mr Sadr’s apparent victory does not mean his bloc could necessarily form the next government as whoever wins the most seats must negotiate a coalition government, expected to be formed within 90 days of the official results.

Security and commission sources had earlier said Mr Abadi was leading the election, which was held on Saturday and is the first since the defeat of Islamic State in the country.

Turnout was 44.52 per cent with 92 per cent of votes counted, the Independent High Electoral Commission said - that was significantly lower than in previous elections. Full results are due to be officially announced later on Monday.

Mr Sadr and Mr Amiri both came in first in four of the 10 provinces where votes were counted, but the cleric’s bloc won significantly more votes in the capital, Baghdad, which has the highest number of seats.

The commission did not announce how many seats each bloc had gained and said it would do so after announcing the results from the remaining provinces.

A document provided to Reuters by a candidate in Baghdad that was also circulating among journalists and analysts showed results from all 18 provinces.

Reuters could not independently verify the document’s authenticity but the results in it for the 10 provinces announced by the electoral commission matched those of the commission.

Popular vote

Reuters calculations based on the document showed Mr Sadr had won the nationwide popular vote with more than 1.3 million votes and gained 54 of parliament’s 329 seats. He was followed by Mr Amiri with more than 1.2 million votes, translating into 47 seats, and Mr Abadi with more than 1 million votes and 42 seats.

Mr Sadr will not become prime minister as he did not run in the election but his apparent victory puts him in a position to pick someone for the job. Winning the largest number of seats does not automatically guarantee that, however. The other winning blocs would have to agree on the nomination.

In a 2010 election, vice-president Ayad Allawi’s group won the largest number of seats, albeit with a narrow margin, but he was blocked from becoming prime minister for which he blamed Tehran.

The same fate could befall Mr Sadr. Iran has publicly stated it would not allow his bloc to govern.

“We will not allow liberals and communists to govern in Iraq,” Ali Akbar Velayati, top adviser to the Islamic Republic’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, said in February.

His statement, which sparked criticism by Iraqi figures, was referring to the electoral alliance between Mr Sadr, the Iraqi Communist Party and other secular groups who joined protests organised by Mr Sadr in 2016 to press the government to see through a move to stem endemic corruption.

Mr Sadr has a zealous following among the young, poor and dispossessed but had been sidelined by influential Iranian-backed figures.

During the election campaign, frustrated Iraqis of all shades complained about their political elite’s systematic patronage, bad governance and corruption, saying they didn’t receive any benefits of their country’s oil wealth.

Iraq has been ranked among the world’s most corrupt countries, with high unemployment, rife poverty, weak public institutions and bad services despite high oil revenues for many years. Endemic corruption has eaten at the government’s financial resources.

Mr Sadr derives much of his authority from his family. Mr Sadr’s father, highly respected Grand Ayatollah Mohammed Sadeq al-Sadr, was murdered in 1999 for defying Saddam Hussein. His father’s cousin, Mohammed Baqir, was killed by Saddam in 1980.

Celebrations erupted on the streets of Baghdad after the commission’s announcement, with thousands of Mr Sadr’s supporters singing, chanting, dancing and setting off fireworks while carrying his picture and waving Iraqi flags. –Reuters