Europe Letter: Deal with Britain raises more questions than answers

The British deal reached on Friday night in Brussels represents a feat of diplomacy if nothing else by the European Union.

After 40 hours of negotiations, EU leaders finally reached a settlement that managed to offer concessions to Britain without changing the EU treaties.

Whether the finer points of the agreement will determine the outcome of the referendum is unlikely. Britain’s referendum was always going to be shaped more by the domestic political landscape and internal workings of the Conservative Party than the nuances of the Brussels deal.

While many in Brussels believe their work is done, a number of issues still remain to be worked out at EU level. The agreement struck at the summit must now be enacted. This means that changes involving secondary legislation – mostly covering the emergency brake for migrants' benefits and new child benefit rules – need to be approved by the European Parliament.

The question of whether the European Union would go back to the renegotiating table in the event of a leave vote will loom over the campaign, despite the European Commission insisting there is no Plan B.

The absence of any mention of Article 50 – the article which outlines how countries can leave the European Union – has galvanised some Eurosceptics’ position that rejecting the referendum could allow Britain to renegotiate a better deal.

Fundamentally, however, the agreement raises profound questions about the future, status, and viability of the European Union.

While Britain has long had a semi-detached relationship with the European Union – it is outside the euro zone, Schengen and certain Justice and Home Affairs laws – the settlement struck on Friday formalises a special relationship for Britain for the first time.

What does this mean for the European project?

For many, the concessions made to Britain have paved the way for a two-tier Europe. In particular, the recognition in the text that "the references to ever closer union do not apply to the United Kingdom" is a significant moment.

Integration

Writing in Rome's leading daily Il Messaggero on Monday, Romano Prodi, the former head of the European Commission and Italian prime minister warned that "the real consequence of the summit is extraordinarily important: Brussels has officially enshrined a multi-speed Europe".

France and Belgium were among those countries who warned against tinkering with the "ever closer union" principle that is contained in the EU's founding treaty.

For other federalists, the British settlement is a positive development. Former Belgian prime minister and liberal leader in the European Parliament Guy Verhofstadt welcomed the British exemption. He argued that it will permit the rest of the bloc to proceed with further integration.

The British agreement raises questions about the future direction of the European Union and where ideas about further integration may come from.

One forum that may offer answers is symbolised by the recent meeting of the EU's six founding members in Rome. At the meeting earlier this month, the foreign ministers of France, Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, the Netherlands and Italy reiterated their commitment to "ever closer union". Noting that Europe faced "very challenging times" they said the answer lay in more, not less, Europe.

“We remain resolved to continue the process of creating an ever closer union among the people of Europe,” stated a joint communique. With another meeting of the group planned for April in Brussels some EU officials believe the group may take a bigger role in dictating the future direction of European Union politics, particularly as concern grows over the values and politics of some east European governments.

As one senior EU official, reflecting on the current state of the Union, put it: “It is virtually impossible to achieve further integration with 28 member states, even 27 if the UK stays out . . . the European Union is based on common values. Do we really share common values?”

At this juncture Ireland needs to ask itself where it stands in relation to future integration plans for the European Union. While Ireland already tilted away from Britain once it joined the single currency, the prospect of a British exit would deprive Ireland of one of its main EU allies, potentially leaving it isolated as a small country.

But even if it votes to remain, Britain’s relationship with the European Union will be altered fundamentally.

In June Britain will no longer be committed to the principle of ever closer union that Ireland and other countries will still be bound by. As the six founding members consider the next phase of European integration, Ireland needs to ensure that its voice is heard at the EU table when decisions on further political union are made, a development that will have a profound impact on Ireland and other nation states.