There is an air of grey inevitability about the latest challenge to the leadership of John Bruton. After 10 years of slow erosion - interrupted by a brief flowering during his years as Taoiseach - support within the Fine Gael parliamentary party finally fell below a critical mass. The centre of gravity shifted. In crude terms, John Bruton was a dead man walking.
For a time, it looked as if Austin Deasy's solo run had given him a new lease of life. Last November's out-of-the-blue motion of no confidence took everybody by surprise. It shocked TDs and senators and left potential leadership challengers unprepared and floundering.
A unanimous vote of support from his front bench set the scene. It meant no challenger of substance would oppose him. So, when the vote was put to the parliamentary party, he won by a margin of three to one.
This time it will be different. Jim Mitchell and Michael Noonan, two of the most senior and capable members of the Fine Gael front bench, set the clock ticking. Having talked to their colleagues, they would table a motion of no confidence in Mr Bruton next Wednesday. After that, they would offer themselves as candidates for the leadership. And, no matter who won, the loser would be appointed as deputy leader of the party.
It was a stitch-up. John Bruton was about to become the meat in the mother of all political sandwiches. With Jim Mitchell canvassing for the vote of his Dublin parliamentary colleagues and Michael Noonan hoovering up in Munster, Mr Bruton would be squeezed in his midlands base.
Of course, the two greying rebels did not discount the possibility of another challenger emerging from the ranks. Their pact was designed to guarantee Mr Bruton's defeat. After that, they were offering the establishment of a front bench "meritocracy". Below the top two jobs, of course.
With Ivan Yates excluding himself from the contest, it would be surprising if after next Wednesday some younger TD did not declare an interest. In the long term it would do no harm in lifting a profile and angling for position.
A sour-voiced Austin Deasy yesterday envisaged somebody "a little younger and a little gutsier" than the two front-runners emerging.
There is one certainty. When the Fine Gael front bench meets tomorrow, John Bruton can kiss goodbye to a unanimous vote of confidence. Mr Mitchell and Mr Noonan will not resign their posts. And they will be pushing their colleagues towards insurrection.
The rebels cannot be certain of a victory there because the incumbents hold their places by the grace and favour of the party leader. Still, the signs are propitious. Only Nora Owen, as deputy leader, went public to offer support to Mr Bruton. The others kept their heads down.
If Mr Bruton finds himself in a minority tomorrow, he should save himself the pain that a vote of 73 elected Fine Gael representatives will bring on Wednesday.
John Bruton is a fighter. And he took the battle to his opponents yesterday when he challenged their sudden change of heart. They were, in his eyes, being driven by the winds of ephemeral public opinion. Worse, they were "deserting the party colours".
He intended to go into the next election as leader of Fine Gael, with a united team behind him. If that happened, there would be a new situation. John Bruton was going to win the next election and become Taoiseach.
It was a beautiful dream. But it wasn't the dream driving Michael Noonan and Jim Mitchell. They saw themselves rescuing Fine Gael from the grasp of a man who lacked charisma and leadership qualities.
He had "failed to connect with large sections of the electorate"; he had failed to genuinely engage with his colleagues on policy matters and party business; he had failed to motivate them; and he had failed to sell the party's message to the public.
It was devastating stuff. And the rebels used a succession of opinion polls to justify their assertions. Jim Mitchell employed the most potent weapon of all - fear - to chivvy his colleagues. On the basis of last week's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll figures, he declared, Fine Gael would lose five Dail seats in Dublin alone.
Then Michael Noonan introduced self-interest. Another poll showed the electorate was prepared by a margin of 15 points to support a Fine Gael-led coalition government if it was led by somebody other than Mr Bruton.
Fear and ambition are the lifestuff of politics. And they will be used to maximum effect in the coming weeks.
Mr Bruton is, Jim Mitchell allowed, a "decent man". He is surely. In spades. But, on the basis of the forces now ranged against him, his time as Fine Gael leader is up.