Jostling for Cabinet positions begins this weekend as Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats open talks to renew their political marriage vows, Mark Brennock reports
For all the pious talk on both sides about how the negotiations to form the next government will be driven by policy, there are few issues of serious disagreement between the parties, and none of major conflict.
The new programme for government that will emerge from the talks starting on Monday will have a different emphasis than was set by the Government in its latter years. The invitation to "get out and party" to celebrate the good times will be replaced by a more cautious tone, reflecting the deterioration in the Exchequer position.
The Taoiseach and Tánaiste will talk by phone today and are likely to have some discussion on the delicate issue of Cabinet positions. The PDs feel, quite reasonably, that the doubling of their number of seats in the election entitles them to a stronger role in government. Fianna Fáil feels, also quite reasonably, that their increased Dáil representation should not be followed by a reduced share of the spoils of office.
There are tensions within the coalition parties, too, over who gets what. In Fianna Fáil there are many who feel their talents should be recognised by elevation to Cabinet, including Seamus Brennan, Willie O'Dea, Eamon Ó Cuív, Martin Cullen, Noel Treacy and Eoin Ryan.
To make room for some of them would involve imposing pain on others. Members of the Cabinet seen as vulnerable to enforced retirement from the top table include Dr Michael Woods, Joe Walsh, Michael Smith and Síle de Valera. The Taoiseach is notoriously slow to offend anyone, but as one senior source says, he faces the choice between offending those he demotes, or those he fails to promote.
The forced departure of Mary O'Rourke from Cabinet should create a vacancy for another woman, and Mary Hanafin appears to be in a strong position in this regard.
Others will have to wait to see just how adventurous Mr Ahern is going to be. Coalition with the PDs would probably involve ceding a second ministry to that party. Without significant involuntary retirements, Mr Ahern will have little room to manoeuvre.
The clamour for recognition is not confined to Cabinet aspirants. On the backbenches those who will feel their time has come for promotion to the junior ranks at least include Brian Lenihan, Dick Roche, Tony Killeen, Billy Kelleher and John McGuinness. Political geography would give hope to someone from Laois-Offaly (either Sean Fleming and John Moloney), Wexford (John Browne or Tony Dempsey), Mayo (and if it isn't to be Beverley Cooper-Flynn it must be newcomer John Carty), Limerick West (Michael Collins or John Cregan). Meanwhile, Pat The Cope Gallagher would feel deserving of some reward after agreeing to run for the Dáil again to win back a seat for the party in Donegal.
And then there are the Progressive Democrats. Before the election it appeared obvious that should they get two Cabinet posts, Liz O'Donnell would join Ms Harney as a full Minister. But that was before the return of Michael McDowell after his decisive role in the party's performance. The Attorney General is believed to have his mind set on a mainstream ministerial post. After his campaign contribution, it is difficult to see him being denied.
Tom Parlon would also fancy his chances of some advancement, and the party will press for two junior positions to accommodate him and Ms O'Donnell. Should they only get one, a committee chairmanship or some other position would be sought.
Then of course there is policy. Both parties will begin negotiating on Monday on the basis of their manifestos. There is great convergence between them in most policy areas. The lack of difference is highlighted by the fact that the issue of whether and where to build a national stadium is seen as the most difficult between the parties.
But on the stadium, both parties have given themselves enough wriggle room to allow for a deal. Mr Ahern has said he will agree to a smaller stadium if necessary, and the Fianna Fáil manifesto said the rest of the ambitious sports campus was an aspiration, not a commitment. The PDs have said they are opposed to the "€1 billion project", leaving it open to them to accept a much smaller one. While they say they don't like the idea of building a stadium at Abbotstown, they have not ruled it out.
On tax cuts, the PDs are committed to reducing the top tax rate from 42 per cent to 40 per cent, while the Fianna Fáil idea is to have a vaguer commitment. Similarly with privatisation, Fianna Fáil will want a much vaguer commitment to selling off State companies than the PDs.
IN the highly unlikely event of anything providing a stumbling block to the reformation of the FF/PD Coalition, Fianna Fáil has mapped out its alternative.
They believe they can secure the consistent support of four independents - or five, if Mildred Fox is elected. While the party hopes the availability of the independent option will temper PD demands, the opposite is also true. Fianna Fáil has already been in contact with several independents, and their demands appear very reasonable.
Jackie Healy-Rae appears keen to renew the existing arrangement and has a shorter list of constituency demands than last time. In 1997 he sought and got the re-opening of the Pretty Polly Factory in Killarney, and the beginning of work on the pier at Cromane, near Killorglin. Now, he said yesterday, his priorities include upgrading the Rathmore road to Killarney and the N86 to Dingle. "But these must be addressed anyway," he said.
Paddy McHugh, who was elected in Galway East as an independent, having failed to secure a Fianna Fáil nomination, has stated publicly his willingness "in principle" to support a Fianna Fáil government. In return, he said yesterday, he wants commitments to the re-opening of Tuam Hospital and additional funding for national schools, water and sewage schemes and national secondary roads in the constituency.
James Breen in Clare has similar local issues he wants to pursue, while Niall Blaney in Donegal North East is also seen by Fianna Fáil as a likely supporter.
Fianna Fáil has attempted to spread its net beyond the "Fianna Fáil family" independents, talking informally to Mayo Independent Dr Jerry Cowley. Dr Cowley campaigned strongly on the issue of the upgrading of Castlebar hospital, and is also seeking improved supply of gas to Mayo towns and improved infrastructure for the county.
Even if a deal is done with the PDs, Fianna Fáil will be keen to keep some of the independents on side. For cautious Mr Ahern, it provides an insurance option against the possibility that the Coalition could break up over some unpredicted controversy. It would be his nature already to have the next general election date set in his head: June 2007.