LEADERS IN WAITING: With a month at most to go before the calling of the general election, Mark Brennock, Political Correspondent, talks to the Taoiseach, Bertie Ahern, in the first of a series of major interviews with the main party leaders.
MB: Is there any party you would find it difficult or impossible to go into Government with? You have mentioned Sinn Féin before.
BA: I have already put on record that it would not be possible to go into coalition government with Sinn Féin after the election. We welcome the fact that Sinn Féin has begun a journey but there is still some way to go before my party would consider going into government with them.
The IRA are still there. I know both Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness have both stated at different times that they are committed - in a period that they can carry their organisation with them - to moving to a stage where they would not have any paramilitary [links], and I just think that's going to take some time. They also have to move to go to play their role in the establishment of the Police Service of Northern Ireland. I think there is a mechanism set out where that will happen. They are important steps that have to be made.
MB: There has been a lot of talk about another act of IRA decommissioning taking place. Would that make it easier in relation to Sinn Féin?
BA: No. I think that's all part of the process of moving on. It helps, but it's not going to resolve it.
MB: Is there any other party you would rule out?
BA: We have nothing in common with Fine Gael mindsets and we've a vision of where the country should be at the beginning of the 21st century and we don't want to go backwards and that's the way we think they are. Secondly, it would be very unhealthy for our democracy to have a coalition between the two big parties because there would be no effective opposition.
MB: The Labour Party has said it is open to borrowing - to using the long-term pension fund money to pay for spending commitments. Would that rule them out from your point of view?
BA: No, all of these things are policies put down. On the other side of an election people have to look and see if there are fundamental issues which have to be resolved.
MB: You all say an overall majority for Fianna Fáil can't be done. Surely on a very good day, when you look at a half dozen constituencies, it's conceivable, however unlikely, that things could fall right?
BA: We have very good figures people, and they say the figures don't add up. You need 84 or 85 effectively to be a government and that's not there.
MB: If you came close, if you got somewhere just short of 83 seats and it was conceivably possible to form a government without the PDs, would you form one with them anyway?
BA: I think that's a likely possibility. The reality is that this Government has worked well. It's been a good government, and if you are a few seats short I'd have to say, well is there some reason why I shouldn't, and the fact is there isn't. I am actually quite happy.
MB: If Michael McDowell didn't make it to the Dáil, would you think of reappointing him AG anyway?
BA: That's a matter for [after the election] but I have to say I think highly of him and I suppose the straightest way of answering is to say I've had no problem working with him. He's highly competent, with an enormous capacity to work which is what I like in people.
MB: How many seats can you win?
BA: I honestly don't know and I'm not going to put a number on it. Our whole campaign strategy is to maximise the campaign behind every one of our 106 candidates and to try to win as big a share of the vote across the country as we possibly can.
MB: At your ardfheis and Michael Noonan's ardfheis, a lot of people opened parts of their speeches asking what did the Government do with the boom. You and Charlie McCreevy listed off a large number of things that have been done, but in terms of broader impact on Irish society, what changes have you made to the nature or the direction of Irish society?
BA: The short answer to that is that we have achieved historic breakthroughs in terms of employment. We've now gone through for the first time in the history of the State one and three quarter million people working. It's only a decade ago where we had just 1.1 million people.
We have had a huge success on poverty reduction. In our first two years alone, the figures show that 200,000 people were lifted out of poverty. I said that social inclusion was going to be a big issue, I've driven that committee myself, I've chaired it, and we've put an enormous amount of money into disadvantaged education. In the areas of disability education we've gone from 100 teachers to 1,000 teachers. We have done the whole drugs programme under Eoin Ryan.
The pension increase has given a whole new quality of life and standard of living to our elderly people. The tax reductions have not only eased the burden in all our pockets but have also helped to fuel economic growth and regeneration and sustainability of the economy.
The whole planning for the future, the enormous infrastructural drive that's going on. The economy of this country has doubled in eight years. I think we have buried the idea that we squandered the boom.
MB: Will the health strategy be implemented and funded fully?
BA: We're fully committed to implementing the strategy. Funding has been provided this year for 700 new beds alone, the first expansion in bed numbers we have had for 20 years. Funding is also there to reduce the waiting lists and extend GP cover. The health strategy is a 10-year strategy.
The only way we can implement our ambitious health strategy is to generate money through the economy, to continue the policies we have, policies of generating the economy, and part of our low tax strategy is to do that.
MB: When you say the only way to fund it is to generate money through the economy, that makes it sound as if it is somewhat conditional on the level of future economic growth?
BA: But the level of future economic growth looks good for this country. All the reports say we are going to sustain levels of economic growth higher than the European average. I think if we can sustain levels of growth of even 4 or 5 per cent - I don't think we are going to go back into the higher ones - but I think that will give us the resources.
MB: The Department of Finance figures say there will be a deficit of close to €3 billion as an opening position next year. Will the money be there out of current revenues to fund the health strategy, the National Development Plan and so on and, if not, would you consider borrowing? Fine Gael have said they would consider borrowing for capital purposes, for the National Development Plan.
BA: [He pointed out that under the EU Stability and Growth Pact ,the Government has a legal obligation to have a budget deficit of under 3 per cent, and that therefore the scope for borrowing is limited.] Your starting position as minister for finance, whether you are Joe Higgins or Charlie McCreevy, is the same. So you have to work from that basis.
Then you have to work from the basis of whether you are generating sufficient money. In our view we believe that [we are]. While there might be borrowing, you are confined [by EU obligations]. We don't believe you can prioritise everything but we think health and education are the ones you can prioritise, you have to look at your priorities after that.
MB: Are you saying that within the limitations, the money will be there to fund health?
BA: Yes, but again being honest, it's a 10-year plan.
MB: Ten billion over 10 years?
BA: Yes, but look what we have done. We in a four-year period have actually doubled [health spending]. You can't do everything but we've set out a strategy which we have negotiated and talked through with the people and we'll be doing our damndest to implement it. [He said the general Government balance as a percentage of GDP was projected to be 0.5 per cent, and that the EU rules allowed for a deficit of up to 3 per cent.]
MB: So there would be scope for a significant amount of borrowing?
BA: That's the point.
MB: Would you use that scope?
BA: I think if asmall country tries to go all the way up [to the 3 per cent limit] you will get considerable pressure in Europe. Within that there is a contingency position of a billion [a reference to the projected setting aside by the Exchequer of €1 billion next year for general contingencies]. So it is a healthy position based on low growth so I don't think that's a problem.
MB: Do you accept that the declaration you are seeking from the EU in relation to neutrality has no legal standing?
BA: It was a major disappointment that the Nice Treaty was defeated. We have done three major things on that in the last nine months. The Forum for Europe has proved very successful. We have had public forums around the country and it has been a good level of debate. Brian Cowen has been working on the whole parliamentary accountability issue. The third thing is that we have been communicating Europe to the schools and colleges.
We need to make it absolutely clear to people that our policy of neutrality is not under threat.
The Nice Treaty has nothing to do with our neutrality. In order to make this absolutely clear, our European partners in Barcelona told me that they would be happy to agree to a Declaration to this effect at the next European Council in Seville in June. That declaration is not one that changes the Nice Treaty, but the declaration on its own is legally binding as a declaration of the European Council.
MB: Would you consider a constitutional amendment on neutrality?
BA: I do not believe that's a matter for the Constitution. The law already requires that in order for a troop contingent to be sent abroad, three conditions must be fulfilled. They must be part of an operation endorsed by the United Nations, it must be approved by a clear government decision, and it must be approved by Dáil Éireann. These three conditions provide a triple lock on it.
MB: If Martin Mansergh is elected, will you leave him on the backbenches?
BA: Eh, I don't know (laughs). I've plenty of talent. If they're all elected I'll have plenty of talent. He's a hugely useful person in whatever role he'll play and if he is elected he'll be a very good representative of the people of South Tipp.
MB: And will Mary O'Rourke be deputy leader of Fianna Fáil in the next Dáil?
BA: Well they are all things to look at on the other side [of an election].
The only thing I hope is that I'll be privileged to be able to have plenty of talent available to me when we come back after the election.
MB: More generally, can we expect quite a few Cabinet changes?
BA: This team has been with me for seven and a half years and I think it will be a time to be changing and to be giving new people opportunities.
MB: I suppose you'd hardly tell me how many changes?
BA: (Laughs) I have to be elected first.
MB: Are there any circumstances in which you would legislate for abortion?
BA: We have to go back and examine it. Our proposal, which we thought was a fair and balanced proposal, has now been rejected. The dilemmas which led us to begin the whole process of the Green Paper are still there.
Some people say if we had put these questions separately a lot of them would have been passed. That's all conjecture. I'm not prepared to say what we will do, just that there is a job to do.
MB: You praised Beverley Cooper Flynn recently at a party meeting and she is running as a [party] candidate. Why isn't she back in the fold [the parliamentary party]?
BA: She has ratification of the party national executive and that remains the position. She is not in the parliamentary party. I don't see that changing.
But she is a Fianna Fáil candidate, she is ratified by the party, by the national executive of the party to run as a Fianna Fáil candidate so she is an official Fianna Fáil candidate.
MB: Can she be long-term a ratified party candidate or TD and yet be outside the parliamentary party?
BA: No, I think clearly on the other side of an election the incoming parliamentary party...would look at that position, but that's where it is for now.
She's had a difficult period with all of the litigation and that, yet she has continued to work hard and do her job. [She is] very well focused and she's been a good supporter of the Government in the House.