US demand spurs euro zone manufacturing

Strong US demand and a weaker euro helped manufacturing in the euro zone to grow at its fastest pace in 14 months in November…

Strong US demand and a weaker euro helped manufacturing in the euro zone to grow at its fastest pace in 14 months in November, according to a survey of 3,000 companies.

The RBS/NTC Research Eurozone Purchasing Managers' Index edged further above the 50 line that divides growth from contraction to 52.8, just above October's 52.7.

The modest improvement was exactly in line with consensus forecasts and supports expectations that the euro zone economy is building on a third quarter recovery, led by exports.

"It doesn't suggest any further acceleration in manufacturing activity, but the level is high anyway, so I'd treat this as good news in a sense that it confirms we'll get strong industrial activity still in the fourth quarter," said Holger Fahrinkrug at UBS in Frankfurt.

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The European Central Bank has signalled it will probably announce its first interest rate rise in five years at 12:45 today, asserting its determination to ensure high oil prices do not feed into other prices and wage claims.

Chris Williamson, chief economist at NTC Research which compiles the data, said the PMI was still below levels at which the ECB had raised rates in the past. "The appropriate decision from these data alone is to keep interest rates on hold," he said.

However, other economists say an ECB move will be driven largely by concerns that excess money supply may fuel future inflation. "The economic pillar (of policy-making) might be neutral but definitely not standing in the way of further rate rises any more, as the PMIs are moving steadily higher," said Markus Heider at Deutsche Bank.

"But you have to add the monetary pillar back into the equation to get the full picture. The ECB has regularly cited that as one of the factors driving the upside risk to price stability."

The euro zone surveys show the Italian manufacturing sector picking up to outpace the region's other major economies. The Italian PMI rose to 53.1 from 52.0 and growth in the sector was broad-based.

The German PMI came in at 52.7, just below October's 13-month high of 53.1, while the French PMI fell to 51.8, its slowest pace since June, from October's 52.5.