US `big push' on Cyprus may be sidelined

The Cypriot authorities and Western diplomats based in Nicosia have expressed concern over the possibility that the US will be in no position to launch its "big push" for resolution of the Cyprus problem if President Clinton is seriously weakened or driven from office by scandal.

The Cyprus government, the UN and the EU have been counting on the renewal in March of the US initiative, conducted by Mr Clinton's envoy, Mr Richard Holbrooke, as the means for securing agreement between the GreekCypriots and Turkish-Cypriots, Greece and Turkey, for the re-unification of divided Cyprus in a bizonal, bicommunal federation before the island joins the EU in 2000.

President Glafkos Clerides of Cyprus has made the US initiative the central theme of his campaign for re-election on February 8th, claiming that only he can take full advantage of Mr Holbrooke's endeavours. As Mr Clerides and his main challenger, Mr George Iacovou, a former foreign minister who does not enjoy the incumbent's close relationship with the US, are now running neck-and-neck in opinion polls, the Greek Cypriot election could be decided by what happens to Mr Clinton.

The last time no one was in charge in the Oval Ofice, in 1974, when Richard Nixon was facing impeachment over the Watergate tapes, the Greek military junta mounted a coup against the President of Cyprus, Archbishop Makarios, and Turkey responded by invading and occupying the northern third of the island.

Things were very different during the 1963-1964 Cyprus crisis when Lyndon Johnson was president and very much in charge. He ordered a Turkish invasion force to turn around and go home rather than land on Cyprus.

Mr Clinton's troubles come at exactly the wrong moment. Turkey and Greece have been squaring off for an all-out military conflagration over the Greek Cypriots' deployment this year of Russian S-300 missiles around a new military airfield at the coastal town of Paphos.

Although recently Ankara appears to have dropped the military option, it could change its mind. And the absence of a Washingtondriven peace process could encourage Turkey to formally annex the Turkish-occupied north, with the aim of ending once and for all the genuine aspiration of most Cypriots for reunification and reconciliation.