Northern politics reminds one sometimes of the old story about the Where-the-hell-are-we tribe, who got their name because every morning the chief would climb to the top of the next hill and ask in a loud voice: "Where the hell are we?"
A great deal of what happens next in the North may be in the lap of the gods, but there are some certainties, among them the fact that the Northern Secretary, Dr Mo Mowlam, has announced the Assembly will hold its first meeting this Wednesday at Stormont's Castle Buildings. She hopes members will use the occasion to elect a First and Deputy First Minister "to steer the next phase of preparations in consultation with the other parties".
That means, primarily, to define the portfolios of ministers in the new executive. Like most others, Dr Mowlam appears to assume there will be 10 such portfolios in addition to the posts of First and Deputy First Minister. The Belfast Agreement provided for up to 10 portfolios, and it is widely believed all 10 jobs will be taken up by the various parties. Unlike most cabinets, the new executive can be said to establish itself, since parties are entitled to seats in proportion to the number of members they have in the Assembly.
The conventional wisdom is that Mr David Trimble will be elected First Minister, with an SDLP candidate in the Deputy First Minister's post. Most observers believe the SDLP nominee will be the party leader, Mr John Hume, rather than his deputy, Mr Seamus Mallon.
The 10 ministries would be divided as follows: Ulster Unionists three; SDLP three; Democratic Unionist Party two; Sinn Fein two. The DUP leader, the Rev Ian Paisley, has pointed out that his party is entitled to seats in the government but he has also made it clear the DUP will not sit at the cabinet table with representatives of Sinn Fein. If the DUP chose to take up its entitlement, the obvious names that come to mind are Dr Paisley and the deputy leader, Mr Peter Robinson. There may be just enough flexibility in the agreement to allow a party to take executive posts without having to attend meetings with representatives of another party.
The executive will probably be a looser structure than a conventional cabinet. It is even possible to envisage a situation where a party accepted executive posts but was not required to have members present at meetings of the North-South ministerial council. There is uncertainty over what the consequences would be if the DUP failed to take up its two seats. One theory is that the posts would remain vacant, but with so many ambitious politicians around this is an unlikely scenario.
A more likely prospect is that there would be another "spin of the wheel", distributing the DUP seats among the other parties. This would give the UUP an extra ministry, but there would probably be an immediate dispute over the 12th ministry because, when the proportionality formula is applied, three parties are on an equal footing, the SDLP, Sinn Fein and Alliance.
Indeed, if one of the independent unionists were to join Mr Robert McCartney's party, his UK Unionists would also have a claim to an executive post. This problem, if it arises, will presumably have to be dealt with by the Assembly's standing orders committee, expected to be established on Wednesday.
Either way, the UUP will have more executive posts than any other party. In addition to Mr Trimble as probable First Minister, even with the DUP in the mix the party is entitled to three other executive posts. The names most often mentioned for these are: Mr John Taylor, perhaps as Finance Minister; Mr Reg Empey, possibly as Minister for the Environment; and Mr Dermot Nesbitt, a putative Minister for Education.
The SDLP would have a claim on three portfolios in addition to the post of Deputy First Minister. It is believed those who were prominent in the multi-party negotiations would have a good chance of preferment. Mr Seamus Mallon is an obvious choice: his reputation is at its peak since the Good Friday pact. Observers believe an economic role would suit him well. Mr Mark Durkan is another likely choice. Also widely mentioned are Mr Sean Farren, Ms Brid Rodgers and the South Down MP, Mr Eddie McGrady.
The initial expectation was that Mr Gerry Adams and Mr Martin McGuinness would fill the two posts available to Sinn Fein. But there are indications now that only one of them will become a minister, with the other post being filled by a prominent woman from the party.
Discussions in Sinn Fein are said to be at a very early stage, but it is believed the party will decide to keep either Mr Adams or Mr McGuinness free to deal with issues outside the executive. This may mean that instead of Mr McGuinness as a minister we could see someone like Ms Bairbre de Brun, the multilingual Assembly member for West Belfast.
It is early days yet to be playing the game of Fantasy Cabinet. There is no cast-iron guarantee that all these parties will end up sitting together in the same room. There is speculation it may happen in early September. Mr Trimble's enemies are watching and waiting for the day he chooses to sit with Sinn Fein: that is when his opponents will make their final move to destroy him, and he had better have his defences well prepared.