Two old men edge painfully towards a kind of unity for Cyprus

EUROPEAN DIARY: In Copenhagen this week the European Union hopes to complete negotiations that will lead to the organisation's biggest expansion since its foundation half a century ago. By Friday evening 10 new member-states, mostly in central and eastern Europe, will get the green light to join the EU.

But if all goes well, this week's summit could also herald the resolution of one of Europe's most intractable problems, the division of Cyprus.

Diplomats hope that the two parts of the island will agree a blueprint for unification before the summit begins on Thursday. This would mean that the entire island could join the EU in 2004 as a single political entity.

A deal to reunify the island depends on two old men whose lives have been intertwined for half a century, Glafkos Clerides, the 83-year-old Greek Cypriot leader, and Rauf Denktash, his 78-year-old Turkish counterpart. The two men have been arguing and negotiating with one another since the 1960s, but they have never come so close to agreement as they are now.

The division of Cyprus goes back to 1974, when the Greek military junta tried to take over the island. The Greek attempt was met by a Turkish invasion of the north of Cyprus that has kept the island divided ever since.

Separated by United Nations peacekeepers, the two peoples of Cyprus are almost entirely isolated from each other. There are no direct telephone lines between the two sides of the island, and individuals need special permission to travel from one side to the other.

The 640,000 Greek Cypriots are among the most prosperous aspirants for EU membership, and their government yesterday became the first of the candidates to complete its negotiations with the EU. The EU has made clear that the Greek part of Cyprus will be allowed to join the EU in 2004, regardless of the outcome of negotiations to reunify the island.

Impoverished by UN sanctions and recognised by no government except Turkey, Northern Cyprus depends for survival on handouts from Ankara. Its population of 88,000 has been swollen by 50,000 settlers from Turkey and more than 30,000 Turkish soldiers. If there is no agreement this week, tens of thousands of Turkish Cypriots are expected to emigrate in the next few years.

Twice a week since the beginning of this year, Mr Clerides and Mr Denktash have met at a disused airport outside Nicosia in a UN-sponsored effort to resolve the 30-year conflict.

Guided by the UN's special envoy, Mr Alvaro de Soto, the two old adversaries have revisited a familiar set of questions - how to give the two communities maximum autonomy under a central government, what to do about property confiscated in the 1970s and refugees displaced by the conflict and how to guarantee security.

Last month Mr de Soto produced a 154-page plan that proposed a highly decentralised power structure with two "equal component states" under a common government. For the first three years after unification, leaders of the two sides would be co-presidents of the new entity. After that, the presidency would alternate between the two communities.

Both sides are unhappy with the deal for various reasons, and diplomats will have to work hard to secure agreement in time for Thursday's summit. Their efforts could be helped, however, by the co-operative approach of Turkey's new government, which could play a crucial role in persuading Mr Denktash to do a deal.

Turkey wants this week's summit to set a date for the start of its negotiations to join the EU. Some EU governments believe that such a move is premature but the EU needs Turkey's agreement, not only on Cyprus, but on a deal to allow the EU's Rapid Reaction Force to use NATO equipment.

Ankara has indicated that it wants to facilitate an agreement on Cyprus, not least because Northern Cyprus is an unwelcome burden on Turkey's cash-strapped exchequer.