Mr David Trimble's call today for a referendum on a united Ireland in May next year caught most observers by surprise. A bullish Mr Trimble emerged from the annual general meeting of the UUP’s ruling council in Belfast telling the press he hadn't given them the story they'd expected.
"I am not in the habit of consulting the Prime Minister or the Secretary of State when I am making a speech and I guess the rabbit that has come out of this hat was not quite the rabbit you were expecting," he quipped.
However, his call for a poll on Northern Ireland's position within Britain left many pundits wondering if he really wants a genuine debate or it was an electoral ploy.
Mr Trimble's proposal was a direct response to calls from Sinn Féin president Mr Gerry Adams and other republicans for a debate on a united Ireland since the New Year.
A Sinn Féin document in January, entitled the "Map to the Republic," called on party members, in anticipation of the nationalist vote in Northern Ireland drawing level with and overtaking the total unionist vote within the next 20 years, to begin engaging with unionists on the issue.
In a further development, Mr Adams acknowledged last month at the World Economic Forum in New York that unionists could not be forced into a united Ireland and must have their needs accommodated in the event of Irish unity.
Mr Trimble believes a border poll next year would have the effect of settling the issue once and for all.
He argued after today's meeting: "It will kill the issue for a generation because I am quite sure that the result would be an overwhelming endorsement of the Union.
"It will kill the issue and show to nationalists and republicans that there is no point in daydreaming. It is much better for them to concentrate on the job of making a success of Northern Ireland."
However, there may be more practical political reasons for making such a proposal.
Firstly, with nationalists eating into the unionist majority in recent elections, many unionists believe they have suffered as a result of voter apathy.
A border poll would have the effect of motivating unionist voters. People would be expected to turn out to resist a united Ireland and there would be the added bonus of them maximising the unionist vote in the Assembly election on the same day.
Secondly, faced with the prospect of the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists eating into his majority in the Assembly, Mr Trimble has sought to cast himself a year ahead of the election as a defender of the Union.
If he gets a referendum and wins it, he will have carved a position for himself definitively as the leading pro-Union spokesman in Northern Ireland.
If he does not get a border poll, he can at least argue he tried.
But he has also reduced the scope of his own internal critics to depose him as UUP leader in making this proposal.
After all, why overthrow a leader who is prepared to take on republicans at their own game?
PA