CONSTITUENCY PROFILE: NORTH DOWN:TRUE TO its form as a unique constituency, North Down presents novel aspects to the wider Westminster campaign.
This was the seat where Lady Sylvia Hermon held on to what became the sole Ulster Unionist seat in the House of Commons in 2005. It was a glorious election for the DUP which very nearly steam-rollered its unionist rival, raising its Westminster total to nine seats and killing off the House of Commons career of David Trimble in the process.
Still standing at the end of that UUP near-wipeout was Lady Hermon, but much has happened since. The joint platform shared by the Ulster Unionists and the British Conservatives is something she cannot support and herself and her party have parted company.
Close colleague, Assembly member and one-time challenger for the UUP leadership Alan McFarland has done the same. Now standing as an Independent she is defending a majority of nearly 5,000, but the DUP, which came in second in 2005, is not fielding a candidate.
Significant opposition to Lady Hermon’s considerable grip on the constituency comes this time from Ian Parsley. He stood for Alliance in last summer’s Euro election and polled well, winning the party its highest ever share of the vote in such an election.
However, shortly afterwards, he walked from Alliance into the arms of the Conservatives and is now the agreed candidate standing under the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists – New Force.
Although clearly unionist, North Down also has a very diverse population, and it is here that the Green Party has its sole Assembly member. Alliance also does well here, particularly in PR elections where it attracts transfers.
There is no doubting Lady Hermon’s local popularity but she is fighting for re-election without the backing and resources of a major party.
This is something of a liberation, she claims, adding that many now like her Independent status.
“They are tired of the party labels,” she claims, “and they are much more confident about voting for an Independent.” She reckons the old party allegiances are breaking down and the people are, in some vague sense “ahead of their politicians” in embracing a new form of less rigid party politics.
Asked to name her chief rival she declines, preferring to cite her fears about a low turnout and resulting “vote shredding” given the area’s tendency to stay at home on polling day.
Ian Parsley, on the other hand, clearly calls it as a two-horse race. It’s Lady Hermon or him. There are two issues, he claims, there is a need for a new British government and if the Conservatives form that government there will be a “direct input” from him as the North Down MP if elected.
North Down has not flocked to the last two Conservative Party candidates but Mr Parsley claims the area has always backed an “integrationist”.
“Having North Down integrated within the UK system and making sure we’re in the mainstream is just as important.” His message of “remove Gordon Brown and have a direct say in UK affairs” is going down very well, he says.
He admits that Lady Hermon is a tough opponent but adds: “There are enough votes that could go anywhere.” Alliance has done well here in Assembly and local elections and its voters have gone tactically for Lady Hermon in the past.
The relatively low polling of the party in 2005 does not reflect its true support. The same may also be true of the Green Party vote. Candidate Steven Agnew, who did well in last June’s Euro election, has clearly learned from his earlier electoral outing and is a competent performer.
The sitting MP must be hoping that many other voters too are considering their tactics and planning to opt for her once more in place of Alliance, the Greens or the nationalist parties.