ANALYSIS:Presidential election will show how the party is now regarded in the Republic, writes STEPHEN COLLINS, Political Editor
THE ENTRY of Martin McGuinness into the presidential election race has transformed the contest. The move has put paid to the notion that it was going to be the dullest ever presidential election.
With David Norris seeking to make a comeback, Fine Gael and Labour tussling for the office, two Independents sure of nomination and Fianna Fáil in a mess of its own making, the campaign is anything but dull.
The decision of Sinn Féin to run McGuinness, the North’s Deputy First Minister, has upped the stakes for all of the parties and individuals involved in the election. It also poses a question for voters in the Republic about the kind of presidency they want and the image of the country they would like to see projected across the world.
McGuinness’s leading role in the IRA during the appalling violence of the Troubles is no secret. Neither is the fact that he played a key role in bringing the campaign of violence to an end.
Once the institutions established under the Belfast Agreement got up and running, he has proved to be Sinn Féin’s most popular political figure, helped along the way by his “chuckle brothers” partnership with Ian Paisley.
How the electorate judges his claims to be president of Ireland and with it supreme commander of the Army will be a real test of how Sinn Féin is now regarded in the Republic.
Running for the presidency is a gamble for McGuinness and Sinn Féin. He is undoubtedly the party’s strongest candidate and the expectation is that he will push up the party’s share of the vote by a considerable amount.
Over the past decade or more, since the signing of the Belfast Agreement, Sinn Féin has obtained close to 10 per cent of the vote in successive Irish Times opinion polls.
In general elections of 2002 and 2007 the party’s vote slipped below its poll ratings but last February it won 9.9 per cent and along with it a haul of 14 Dáil seats. The expectation in Sinn Féin is that McGuinness will do considerably better than 9.6 per cent and, given the fragmented nature of the field, might even be in with a chance of winning the presidency. He will certainly be a formidable campaigner and is unlikely to be underestimated by any of the other candidates.
His charming, easy-going persona may offset the concerns of people worried about his IRA record, but the past is unlikely to go away as an undercurrent in the campaign, even if the focus of political debate is on more current issues.
Sinn Féin’s approach to the economy, its rejection of the EU-IMF bailout and its hostility to the European Union are likely to feature as potent issues during the campaign, but ultimately it will come down to a judgment by the voters on which of the candidates is the most suitable to represent the country. It will be intriguing to see what proportion of the electorate is prepared to back McGuinness on October 27th. Anything in excess of 12.5 per cent will enable the party to get back €200,000 from the taxpayer to cover election expenses, and anything over 20 per cent could put him in with a real chance of winning the office in a fragmented field.
At this stage it is difficult to gauge the impact of McGuinness’s candidature on the other party candidates, Michael D Higgins of Labour and Gay Mitchell of Fine Gael. Since the election Sinn Féin has targeted Labour’s working class support and the presidential election will enable the party to go after it in an organised fashion.
Higgins has been the frontrunner by some distance in the most recent opinion polls and Sinn Féin will be hoping to eat into his support base, particularly in working class areas.
Mitchell’s campaign has so far been a disappointment to Fine Gael. McGuinness’s arrival on the scene has the capacity to rally the party’s traditional vote as well as its new middle class adherents who have little sympathy with Sinn Féin’s track record and are appalled by its economic policies.
Alternatively, if McGuinness gets early traction and is close to Mitchell in the polls, the Fine Gael vote could desert to Higgins or even one of the Independents as the best way of halting Sinn Féin.
The arrival of McGuinness also has implications for the two Independent candidates Mary Davis and Seán Gallagher. They have both scored very respectably in the polls, coming within striking distance of Mitchell and between them attracting around 40 per cent or so of the electorate who would like an alternative to the two Government parties.
Davis, in particular appears too have the potential to move up the field and could post a challenge to the established parties, but if the Sinn Féin campaign takes off McGuinness could eat into their vote and both could be squeezed in the process.
Another Independent David Norris is battling to get himself back into the race having pulled out in July. While polls show him performing respectably, he will have difficulty getting the support of the 20 Oireachtas members required to get a nomination.
And then there is the potential candidature of Fianna Fáil Senator Labhrás Ó Murchú. He managed to defy his party leader last week but when it comes to the crunch on Tuesday Martin should be able to get his way and ensure that the party sticks to its original decision to stay out of the race.
Whatever happens next there will certainly be five candidates in the field and possibly more. The outcome will almost inevitably be decided on transfers and at this stage, with six weeks to go, the outcome is wide open.