Sharp rise in murder rate could be linked to increased drinking

The increase in alcohol consumption in the Republic, combined with a number of other factors, may explain why the murder rate…

The increase in alcohol consumption in the Republic, combined with a number of other factors, may explain why the murder rate has risen sharply at a time when it has stabilised in Britain and fallen dramatically in the US, according to research which is to be published soon.

The study entitled Unlawful Killing, Past and Present by Dr Ian O'Donnell of the UCD Institute of Criminology has found that while murders were much more commonplace in the State in the mid-1800s, they decreased significantly during the 1900s before rising again over the past decade.

Sixty murders were recorded in 2001 compared to 25 in 1992.

At the same time, according to Dr O'Donnell, the murder rate in the US fell from 94 per million in 1990 to 55 per million in 2000, while in England and Wales the rate has remained almost constant at a rate of 13 per million in 1990 and 14.5 per million in 2000.

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Dr O'Donnell said that while responses to crimes in the Republic, the US and Britain were similar, with an emphasis on incarceration as the primary response and a fascination with zero-tolerance policing, they obviously had not achieved similar results, at least as far as homicide was concerned.

"This calls into question the potential value of approaches that have become fashionable elsewhere and suggests the need to devise responses that are tailored to local conditions," he said.

There was also a need to look at what it was about Ireland at the close of the 20th century which had driven murder rates upwards.

Some tentative explanations included the rise in alcohol consumption, dissatisfaction among those left behind by the Celtic Tiger, demographic changes and the rise in gangland feuding, he said.

"Contrary to the national stereotype, Ireland had a comparatively low level of alcohol consumption for most of the 20th century," Dr O'Donnell said.

"The Pioneer Total Abstinence Association was a major force in social life and at its peak in the 1940s and 1950s could attract crowds of up to 90,000 to its rallies in Croke Park in Dublin.

"Between 1960 and 1975, the average amount of alcohol consumed in Ireland doubled, but the country remained close to the bottom of the European league table, each adult consuming on average just over one third of what was consumed in Portugal and France," he said.

"The rate remained fairly steady until 1990, by which time it was close to the European norm (other countries having substantially reduced their drinking). Then came a significant surge. Between 1989 and 1999 the rise in per-capita alcohol consumption in Ireland was 41 per cent, by far the highest in the EU.

"It is possible that the sudden rises in drinking and homicide are coincidental. However, good reasons exist for thinking that they are related," he said, citing one study of homicide in Ireland between 1972 and 1991 which found that in about half the cases, either the victim, perpetrator or both were intoxicated.

In addition, Dr O'Donnell said that in tandem with the sudden growth in alcohol consumption the gap between rich and poor had widened, with those left behind by the Celtic Tiger likely to experience widespread dissatisfaction. "An unequal society creates a context for violent crime," he said.

Furthermore, he said, it was likely the growth in crime associated with the organisation of the drug trade accounted in part for the increase in unlawful killings. Between 1972 and 1991 there were just two gangland killings, but there were eight such incidents in 1996 alone.

Another factor, he suggested, was demographic change. Ireland's population grew by 8 per cent between 1996 and 2002, almost four times the EU average.

This was partly accounted for by returning immigrants. Dr O'Donnell said one would expect more homicide as the number of potential victims and perpetrators increased.

Despite his suggested reasons for the rise in murders, Dr O'Donnell said much more detailed information was needed about how many killings were intra-familial and how many involved organised crime before the trend could be fully explained.

Dr O'Donnell's research is due to be published in Irish Jurist in December.