Security concerns to dominate Clinton's visit to Asia

PRESIDENT Clinton embarks this week on an Asian tour which highlights growing White House concerns about security in the region…

PRESIDENT Clinton embarks this week on an Asian tour which highlights growing White House concerns about security in the region, and the need to demonstrate a coherent foreign policy during a re-election year.

Mr Clinton arrives in South Korea today. He travels on to Japan and concludes his seven-day trip in Russia where he will join other western leaders at a summit on nuclear safety and security.

The visit to South Korea comes at a time when famine-afflicted North Korea is threatening war with the South. For three weeks North Korean officials have been saying the 1953 armistice between the two parts of the country is dead and war is only a matter of time.

US diplomats believe the public belligerency is part of a desperate North Korean strategy to improve its negotiating powers in the region, in much the same way as China achieved diplomatic advantage by threatening force against Taiwan during its recent democratic elections. North Korea's goal is a new relationship with the US to end almost 50 years of exclusion from world affairs.

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Mr Clinton's presence in South Korea reaffirms US security guarantees in an Asia which appears less stable than when he took office three years ago. Then the White House approach to the region was dominated by trade concerns. Now, with his re-election contest just six months away, Mr Clinton is portraying himself also as a leader of a military power concerned about maintaining the region's stability.

This is a key issue in US-Japan relations. In Tokyo Mr Clinton faces new questions about the presence of 47,000 US troops in Japan, brought to a head by the rape of an Okinawan schoolgirl by three US soldiers in September. Put on the defensive by the outcry over the crime, the US announced last week it would return a major airbase on the Japanese island within seven years and move some US units to mainland Japan.

As the post-war guarantor of security in the increasingly fragile region, Mr Clinton will at the same time have to reassure his Asian allies that this does not mean the US presence is about to be scaled back.

US-Japan trade disagreement dominated the relationship between the two countries when Mr `Clinton took office more that three years ago, and he and his new Commerce Secretary, Mr Mickey Kantor, concentrated on, pressurising Japan to modify trade policies that restricted US imports.

Since then the issue has dropped down the scale of US domestic concerns. Japanese manufacturers have invested heavily in China and other regions of southeast Asia and Japanese car-makers have moved production more and more to the US.

While Mr Clinton will not visit Beijing, the Asian trip is dominated by concerns over his China policy at a time when China is increasingly dominating the region with displays of military prowess off Taiwan and preparations for the take-over of Hong Kong next year.

Washington's protests about human rights abuses have had little effect on Beijing, and the US has serious disagreements with China over intellectual property rights and budget deficits. However, any move by the US to impose sanctions on China would not be supported by Japan or other neighbours as the region enjoys an astonishing leap forward in economic development.

At the same time military exchanges between China and the US have been growing. Last month, as Beijing denounced the show of force by US warships at the height of the Taiwan crisis, military contacts between the two powers continued to flourish - such as a cordial meeting between the US Assistant Secretary for Defence, Mr Stephen Joseph, and Ge Wang Ke of the People's Liberation Army. China is eager to use such contacts to modernise its armed forces.

In Russia, Mr Clinton will demonstrate support for President Yeltsin and the democratic process in the former Soviet Union - a stance which has been at the heart of his foreign policy since taking office.