Disinformation campaign warning on climate change

Some prefer to argue away the reality of climate change because it doesn't suit their world view but the results of research into our warming climate are unequivocal, says Richard Somerville.

There are sceptics who dismiss the findings, but Somerville says, "The big picture is clear. I think the denial is a very interesting question. Obviously there has been a disinformation campaign."

He lives in France for some months during the year and it allows him to compare and contrast with the views being expressed in the US.

In Europe, governments are able to accept the scientific findings, even if policy changes follow slowly. "In the US, this is politically polarised. You see the very partisan divide," he states.

"One of the things I want to convey is we are talking about real science. This (scientific) review is at the stage where it is quite independent from the ideology of the issue."

He described how he often hears people expressing doubts about the reality of climate change. "I am asked do you believe in global warming. This is not a matter of faith. I believe in quantum mechanics. There is some fundamental physics there you can't argue away."

The IPCC report looks at a number of possible futures for us depending on whether we take a "business as usual" approach to greenhouse gas emissions or attempt to control emissions. It also looks at expected changes in the short term to 2020 and the long term to 2090.

The best- and worst-case scenarios don't look much different in the near term to 2020, he suggests. It shows warming, particularly in the Arctic and in the northern hemisphere more than the southern.

The best and worst are much farther apart by 2090 however. "There you do see these very major differences. In the business as usual scenario it is really quite scary," says Somerville.

Assuming the business as usual scenario, by 2090 we can expect:

• The complete disappearance of Arctic sea ice during summer months

• More heatwaves like the devastating conditions across Europe in 2003 that caused 50,000 excess deaths

• Sea level increases of 60cm or more

• More intense hurricanes and more powerful storms

• Average temperature rises of about 0.2 degrees per decade

• The acidification of the oceans, possibly leading to species kill-offs

• The loss of cubic kilometres of ice from the Greenland ice sheet

• The relentless decline of glaciers right around the world

• Less rain in the tropics and more in higher latitudes.

While it is difficult to blame specific weather-related events such as the 2003 heatwave on climate change, the potential for these events rises because of our altered climate, states Somerville. "Although you can't say global warming caused an event, it raises the odds that it will occur."