FRANCE:FRENCH AND Irish officials last night attempted to finalise details of President Nicolas Sarkozy's visit to Dublin on Monday.
The task was complicated by hostile Irish reaction to Mr Sarkozy's statement on Tuesday that "The Irish will have to vote again." French officials insist that the statement, made in private, was an expression of the president's desire to see the Lisbon Treaty ratified and not a form of intimidation.
The French leader's encounter with advocates of the No vote is so sensitive that French authorities do not want journalists present and do not intend to comment after the meeting.
Details of the visit are still in flux, but the probable schedule for Mr Sarkozy's short stay, according to French sources, includes a working lunch with the Taoiseach, Brian Cowen, followed by a press conference. Mr Sarkozy is then expected to meet about 15 Irish people, evenly distributed between representatives of the No and Yes campaigns, at the residence of the French ambassador in Ailesbury Road.
French sources refused to comment on the possible presence of Declan Ganley, leader of the anti-Lisbon group Libertas.
"Sinn Féin is a political party represented in parliament," noted a French source, implying that the republican party, 95 per cent of whose members voted No, will be represented. Trade unionists and other members of civil society will also be invited.
High-ranking French officials continue to downplay the importance of an article in Le Monde newspaper which outlined a plan Mr Sarkozy reportedly intends to present to the Taoiseach.
"The French president will propose a certain number of guarantees, in particular the assurance that the European Commission will continue to be composed of one commissioner per member country, which would guarantee the presence of an Irishman within the body," Le Monde predicted.
According to France's newspaper of record, Mr Sarkozy will also propose that the European Council make declarations promising not to intervene on abortion (as it did for the Maastricht Treaty in 1991), guaranteeing Irish neutrality (as it did after the initial Irish No to Nice in 2001), and reaffirming an Irish veto on changes in EU fiscal policy.
But French officials insist there is no "Sarkozy plan" as such, and that any solution will be Irish, not French. Reports of a "Sarkozy plan" originated in "the little Brussels milieu" and not in the Élysée Palace, one official said. "We are intensely aware of the difficulty and delicacy of the position facing the Irish. I wouldn't know what to do in their place." The same source spoke of "the enormous, crushing responsibility" weighing upon Mr Cowen. Aware that pressure from Paris would be likely to backfire, the French portray their role as that of facilitators.
"We're under strong pressure from our partners," a French official said, "especially the European Parliament and Germany, to find a solution". The parliament would enjoy greater powers under Lisbon, while Germany claims co-authorship of the treaty with Mr Sarkozy.
Meanwhile, France is making contingency plans for every eventuality. In what it calls "a purely technical exercise" which in no way predetermines future events, Paris has begun canvassing the capitals of the 26 other member states to know exactly how much time they would need between Irish ratification of the Lisbon Treaty and the June 2009 European parliamentary elections. "For some, it's as short as two weeks. For others, it's much longer," an official said.
When the study is complete, the French presidency will know what would be the latest possible date for the June elections to take place under Lisbon rules if Ireland ratifies the treaty.
"If Ireland votes again, there will be immense anxiety all over Europe, and if the treaty passes, immense relief," said a highly-placed source.
While Mr Sarkozy is a man in a hurry, he will be in listening mode and on best behaviour in Dublin. The flipside of his legendary impatience is an ability to grasp quickly all implications of a situation. No one expects any decisions to be announced on Monday.
Though Mr Sarkozy is known to believe the second vote on Nice set a precedent for a second vote on Lisbon, other French officials are acutely aware of their own recent history.
"The French No - by 55 per cent - followed by the Dutch No at 60 per cent only three days later was terrifying," an official said. Because of the No votes in 2005, it would be impossible for the other 26 to go ahead under Lisbon without Ireland, he added.
Irish voters rejected Lisbon by a majority of 53.4 per cent. Mr Sarkozy was elected president of France by 53.06 per cent. "The No is perfectly legitimate," a French official admitted.
If the "commissioner + declarations" formula eventually results in Irish ratification of the Lisbon Treaty, Mr Sarkozy will no doubt be given credit.
But if the Irish Government is persuaded to risk a second referendum and the No wins again, be sure Mr Cowen will be blamed.