SARAH PALIN’S announcement on Wednesday night that she will not seek the Republican presidential nomination has brought new clarity to the conservative race.
After New Jersey governor Chris Christie and Mrs Palin bowed out this week, the field is considered settled. Other candidates are unlikely to enter the contest just three months before Republican primaries begin.
Mrs Palin’s candidacy could have helped the front-runner, the former governor of Massachusetts, Mitt Romney, by further dividing the ultra-conservative Evangelical and Tea Party voters who support Texas governor Rick Perry, Minnesota congresswoman Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain, the African-American founder of Godfather’s Pizza and a radio talk show host.
Polls show that Mr Romney is the only Republican candidate who could beat President Barack Obama. The Real Clear Politics poll average shows Mr Romney gaining ground, with 21.6 per cent of votes. Mr Perry is at 18 per cent, and Mr Cain – who created a surprise by winning two recent straw polls – is at 15 per cent. Ms Bachmann, who was briefly front-runner, is now polling at 4.2 per cent.
The Republican race has been extremely volatile, as the party has desperately sought a saviour. Time and again new entrants surged to the front in polls, only to fall back after poor TV performances.
Many of the Tea Party candidates whom Mrs Palin endorsed in the 2010 midterm election now hold seats in Congress. Her endorsement for the presidential race is much coveted. In a statement issued after her announcement, Mr Perry called her “a good friend, a great American and a true patriot” and said she would continue to be a strong voice for conservative values and needed change in Washington.
Mrs Palin told Greta Van Susteren of Fox News that there was “no perfect one candidate” but that Herman Cain “has the business acumen and that background in the private sector, knowing how to create jobs and meet a bottom line ... He’s pulled himself up from the bootstraps. That’s that Americana story that so many of us are intrigued with and impressed with.”
Mrs Palin had flirted for months with the idea of standing for the presidency. Over the summer she staged a “One Nation” bus tour through the early voting states of New Hampshire and Iowa. But she neglected to build a campaign structure. She is reported to have earned well over $10 million from book contracts, television and speaking engagements, and may have been reluctant to renounce that earning power. She spoke repeatedly of the “shackles” of being a candidate.
The latest Washington Post-ABC News poll showed 66 per cent of Republican sympathisers did not want Mrs Palin to run. In September 2008, she had a 47 per cent approval rating. Three years later, that had fallen to 24 per cent.
The question remains whether Wednesday night’s announcement marks the end of Mrs Palin’s political career. She told Van Susteren that she asked herself repeatedly: “If I say no to the opportunity that’s in front of me via running for office now, will – politically speaking – will I die?”