THE WORLD is in danger of losing a decade in the fight against global warming if there is a “bad outcome” at next December’s United Nations climate change summit in Durban, according to Bolivian negotiator Pablo Solãn.
The permanent representative of Bolivia at the UN warned yesterday that several countries at the Bangkok climate talks were working towards a conclusion in Durban where there would be no new commitments to cut greenhouse gas emissions.
As a result, he said, “during the next 10 years, we are going to enter a regime with no internationally binding agreement, only national voluntary pledges which are not consistent with any target reductions of 40 to 60 per cent needed to stabilise the climate”.
Given that the voluntary pledges on the table amounted to just more than half of what was needed to limit the rise in temperatures to 2 degrees, “to reverse that situation in 2020 would be very, very difficult. So Durban is the key to that lost decade”. His warning came as the World Meteorological Organisation announced that the ozone layer shielding Earth had shrunk by an unprecedented 40 per cent over the Arctic this spring, due to harmful chemicals and the cold winter.
The Plurinational State of Bolivia (its official title) threatened to take legal action under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change after its strenuous objections to the Cancún deal last December were overruled; normally, decisions are adopted by consensus.
Mr Solãn said there were now “rival visions” over what should happen in Durban. Some governments merely wanted to implement the “procedural” outcome of Cancún, while others – including his own – were seeking a “comprehensive and balanced” agreement.
The argument was being made that it was “not possible to have a treaty in Durban, only a framework”. But he said Bolivia and other developing countries were insisting the talks should work towards the objective agreed unanimously at the 2007 Bali summit.
“It is absolutely clear that this is the last chance for the Kyoto Protocol . . . By Durban, there has to be a second commitment period under Kyoto, otherwise there is nothing. Because there isn’t going to be another agreement, but in the best scenario only a framework.”
Mr Solãn said developed countries needed to sign up for more ambitious targets, as the aggregate cuts of three gigatonnes (three billion tonnes) they had already pledged would “take us not to 2 degrees, but to 4 or even 5 degrees” of gobal warming.
He also said that developing countries, including China and India, had pledged to reduce their emissions by 3.6 gigatonnes between now and 2020 – even though they were not historically responsible for the build-up of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere.
Proposals by rich countries that they should receive carbon credits for actions taken in developing nations to offset their own emissions, instead of taking steps to implement cuts at home, were “trying to cheat”, he said.
Meanwhile, Virgin Airlines boss Richard Branson is planning to name and shame “the worst countries” in his Carbon War Room’s annual Gigaton Awards at the Durban summit. Winners of the best and worst awards are to be selected by an independent panel.
“Although this will be a fun event, there is definitely a serious side to it,” he said. “Businesses have to fulfil their promises. When they do they inspire others, but when they don’t they stifle growth. In this way, countries are no different.” The Carbon War Room is a non-profit organisation that “harnesses the power of entrepreneurs to implement market-driven solutions to climate change”.