Reading signs of peace

Observers on the ground in south Lebanon, where more than 500 Irish troops are currently serving with the UN peacekeeping forces…

Observers on the ground in south Lebanon, where more than 500 Irish troops are currently serving with the UN peacekeeping forces, say there is now more hope for peace in the area than there has been for many years.

The British Foreign Secretary, Robin Cook, was around this week and the UN secretary general, Koffi Annan, is due here this weekend, and will go to Damascus, Beirut, the UNIFIL headquarters at Naquora, Jerusalem and Gaza. Both hope to move things on, but not all agree that optimism is justified.

The feeling of hope comes from two main factors - the rising prosperity and investment in south Lebanon, and the Israeli indication that it plans implementing the third phrase of its withdrawal across the Litani River to its original border.

While Koffi Annan will try to persuade the Israelis to set a date for withdrawal, the issue is not as simple as that. Syria, which still has a large and unpopular presence in Lebanon - an estimated 22,000 troops - is opposed to any agreement that does not include Israel returning the Golan Heights to Damascus.

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The pessimists believe Israel is only pandering to home concerns, that it needs access to the Litani waters, that the de facto forces it backs in the south would become a problem rather than remain a help, and that it is easy to talk while Syria will prevent any action. The withdrawal offer is already splitting the Arabs, to Israel's advantage. Indeed, some observers believe the peace process is dead and the Middle East is ripe for another war.

Whatever happens, the Irish presence - we are now here 20 years - will remain for the forseeable future. If Israel pulls out, UNIFIL will have to oversee the withdrawal and help the Lebanese government establish control - holding ground while moving forward. If there's another explosion of violence, peacekeepers would also be necessary. But there remains the question as to whether Ireland would want to, or indeed could, make a greater troop commitment to the Middle East, now that re-equipping is necessary.