Next Wednesday's Commons debate on the British government's legislation providing for the early release of the IRA, Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and Ulster Defence Association (UDA) prisoners in the Maze Prison is expected to raise the temperature in the Assembly election campaign.
Feelings ranging from concern to outrage, mainly in the unionist community, are expected to be reflected in the debate about the highly contentious issue.
Unionist expectations that the release of prisoners would be tied to action on decommissioning were raised before the referendum on the Belfast Agreement when the British Prime Minister, Mr Tony Blair, indicated he would like to see a commitment on decommissioning from the paramilitaries before the implementation of the release programme.
Such hopes, however, were apparently dashed when the three paramilitary groups all indicated there would be no immediate handover of weapons. The IRA says it will not hand over any guns until there is "demilitarisation" of the North, including the withdrawal of the British army and disbandment of the RUC. Loyalists say they will not hand over guns until the IRA has done so.
It is expected that both the British and Irish governments will adhere to the provisions of the Belfast Agreement and ensure that prisoner releases go ahead with only a promise from the paramilitaries that they will hand over guns at some unspecified date. After that, it is expected that the first early releases will begin by the end of June and that the release programme in the North will be completed by July 2000, when the Maze Prison may be closed.
The emptying of the prison will manifest itself even earlier than that. With the new release regime in place, the Maze will, for the first time since it was opened as an internment camp in 1971, be virtually empty of prisoners for the first time this Christmas, when almost all the main paramilitary prisoners get Christmas parole.
The bulk of prisoners in the North will be "permanently" free by July next year. The IRA has 235 prisoners in the Maze and four women members in Maghaberry Prison; the UVF has 104 prisoners in the Maze; and the UDA has 112 prisoners in the Maze.
With the combined IRA, UVF and UDA releases, the North's high-security prison population should be reduced to only a few dozen dissident republicans and loyalists. There are currently 27 Irish National Liberation Army (INLA) prisoners and one from the Continuity Army Council IRA (CIRA) in the Maze and 22 members of the Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF).
The LVF called a ceasefire last month but the RUC is expected to wait for several months before deciding whether or not the LVF ceasefire is real or if it was a tactical ploy to assist the No vote in the referendum and anti-agreement candidates in the forthcoming election.
In the Republic, it is expected there will be no sentenced IRA prisoners left in Portlaoise by Christmas. There are 34 IRA prisoners in Portlaoise, about half of them long-sentence men who have been transferred from prisons in England in the past year.
There is still some confusion over the State's approach in the case of men currently awaiting trial in connection with the murder of Det Garda Jerry McCabe in Co Limerick in 1996. The Minister for Justice, Mr O'Donoghue, has stated that "persons who may be convicted in connection with this murder will not come within the ambit of the [Belfast] agreement". Senior Government sources say it is likely that anyone convicted in connection of this murder will face "several" years' imprisonment.
It is almost certain that a decision to further imprison IRA members in this State while the North's prisons are empty will leave the Republic open to accusations of inconsistency, at least, from unionists. However, the Garda staff associations, the Garda Representative Association (GRA) and Association of Garda Sergeants and Inspectors (AGSI), which are already in dispute with the Government over pay, are likely to take an active role in any campaign against the early release of anyone convicted in the McCabe case.
The view of senior security sources is that the release of prisoners, while unpalatable to a large section of the community, is the principal and best short-term guarantor of the main paramilitary organisations' ceasefires.
Both governments can revoke the release programme and even bring released prisoners back into jail if the ceasefires are broken. The release of the prisoners and the threat of them returning to prison are seen as a powerful lever, particularly against any IRA decision to return to violence. The prospect of the prisoner releases has caused an upsurge of emotional support for and attachment to the Belfast Agreement among what would previously been seen as hardline anti-partitionist communities in the North.
The point is also appreciated by republicans. Sources in the republican community readily admit that a relaunch of the IRA campaign at the likely cost of ending the release programme could irrevocably split the organisation.
Some republicans are also prepared to concede that "armed struggle", as it was known, is no longer an option for the IRA and that the release of prisoners will lock the main paramilitary organisations into pursuing mainly peaceful paths.