Keen observers of The Irish Times/TNS mrbi series will have noted that the first poll after the summer break is traditionally conducted so as to coincide with the resumption of the Dáil, writes Ian McShane, Managing Director, TNS mrbi.
This year, however, it was decided to delay fieldwork somewhat so as to capture the mood of the electorate once it had become clear whether there was to be a presidential election or not.
Today's poll also allows us survey the political landscape following the Taoiseach's long-awaited Cabinet reshuffle.
My commentary accompanying last September's poll discussed the possibility of the electorate using the June 2004 local and European elections to punish Fianna Fáil for failing to deliver upon its 2002 general election promises, only to return to the fold at the next Dáil election.
Fianna Fáil certainly took its hammering in June, with the 32 per cent support recorded for the party in the final local election opinion poll translating to just 32 per cent of all local election first preferences cast on voting day.
Since then, the party has embarked upon the long process of atonement, with attempts to position itself as a more socially-aware organisation, in tune with the needs and concerns of the ordinary voter.
With Monday's publication of the third-quarter Exchequer figures, which suggested there may be €1 billion to give away at the next Budget, an improvement in Fianna Fáil's fortunes might reasonably have been expected.
Early indications for the party are encouraging. Satisfaction with the Government has increased a full nine points over the last four months and is at its highest level since the May 2002 general election.
While still nowhere near the exceptionally high satisfaction ratings which the FF-PD Coalition enjoyed in the months preceding the last Dáil elections (61 per cent just a week before voting), these are the first signs that this Government is beginning to recover some of the ground it so dramatically lost in the immediate aftermath of that poll.
Bertie Ahern's own personal standing as Taoiseach, along with Mary Harney's as Tánaiste, has also improved significantly. In line with Fianna Fáil's recent repositioning initiatives, it is worth noting that both the Government's and the Taoiseach's ratings have increased most dramatically in urban areas, within the younger (18-24 years) and older (65 years+) age categories, and among the more blue-collar C2DE socio-economic group.
The increase in Mary Harney's rating is on the other hand more evenly spread across the various types of voters.
While the Government, Taoiseach and Tánaiste have enjoyed dramatic uplifts in popularity, there have been only minor shifts in support for any of the Government or indeed the opposition parties.
Thus, while Fianna Fáil support has increased, albeit insignificantly, over the last few months, its adjusted figure of 35 per cent is still well short of the 42 per cent of all first-preference votes it garnered in 2002.
The opposition parties, and particularly Enda Kenny and Pat Rabbitte as party leaders, have also had their fair share of media attention recently. Perhaps the most significant development in this regard has been the unveiling of the so-called Mullingar accord, whereby Fine Gael and Labour set out their collective stall as potential coalition partners following the next general election.
Their stated intention is to present the electorate, for the first time in many years, with a viable and credible alternative to a Government which will have been in power for 10 years if it lasts until the summer of 2007.
Fine Gael received a further boost through its recruitment of the Independent TD, Dr Liam Twomey, to the fold, a coup which was presented by the organisation as a sign of a party which is going places.
Meanwhile, media opinion seemed to be in agreement that neither Pat Rabbitte nor Trevor Sargent emerged particularly well from the machinations surrounding the rejection of Michael D. Higgins and Eamonn Ryan as candidates for the presidency.
Against this background, Fine Gael will be very pleased with today's satisfaction rating for Enda Kenny. Throughout the period June 1997 to January 2001, John Bruton's personal rating as leader of Fine Gael in opposition slid consistently from a high of 60 per cent to a low of just 37 per cent. Indeed, there were many who claimed at the time that this rating precipitated the leadership heave against Bruton, leading to the election of Michael Noonan as party leader in February 2001.
There was subsequent disappointment in the camp therefore when Noonan registered just 37 per cent in the first poll conducted after his election, a figure which had dropped to 31 per cent by May 2002.
Kenny's average satisfaction score of an even lower 30 per cent across the eight opinion polls since he assumed the leader's mantle in June 2002 must then have been all the more disconcerting for the party.
In this regard, today's poll represents something of a breakthrough for Fine Gael, with 46 per cent of the electorate rating Enda Kenny favourably as leader of the party, a full 13-point increase since June of this year. Not only is this the largest increase of all the leaders measured, it also represents the highest rating achieved by any Fine Gael leader in five years.
At a 49 per cent approval rating, Pat Rabbitte should be pleased enough with his own showing, equalling as it does his highest rating so far since becoming leader of the Labour Party this time two years ago, and broadly on a par with the average satisfaction rating recorded by his predecessor, Ruairí Quinn.
While Trevor Sargent's 35 per cent is the lowest of all leaders' satisfaction ratings, this should be viewed within the context of the Green Party's appeal to a reasonably narrow section of the electorate. Closer scrutiny of the data reveals, for example, that only one in five of all voters profess to being expressly dissatisfied with Sargent, the lowest level of dissatisfaction recorded of all six party leaders.
Meanwhile, Gerry Adams remains as one of the more popular political figures of our day, with his most recent eight-point increase registering as talks begin with the DUP on the possibility of the restoration of devolved government in the North.
One of the key messages of today's poll is that the recent high-profile manoeuvrings of the main party leaders have had an immediate impact on their personal satisfaction ratings, as well as on the perceived performance of the Government itself.
Party support levels have yet to follow suit, at least to any significant degree. As such, the Government will be looking towards building upon the advances it has made in today's poll.
Specifically, great attention will be paid to the content of December's Budget. While it is unlikely to represent a giveaway, carefully focused capital expenditure is likely in those very areas which will help foster the image of a Government which is perhaps moving closer to Berlin, and farther from Boston.
The opposition will also be encouraged. Enda Kenny has finally arrived centre-stage and is in pole position to drive forward an alternative Fine Gael, Labour and Green Party coalition.
The fact that the combined support for these three parties, at 41 per cent, is currently greater than that commanded by the Fianna Fáil-PD alliance (38 per cent) will be taken as concrete evidence that all is to be played for over the next two years or so.