Threat of Delta variant clouds the indoor hospitality horizon

Good morning.

The Delta variant is relentless about its cursed business in these summer days.

Updated National Public Health Emergency Team (Nphet) modelling predicts a sharp rise in cases over the next two weeks, Ministers will be told today – and this at a time when Government and industry representatives are trying to figure out a way to safely open indoor hospitality on July 19th.

That’s also the date when international travel is supposed to restart, and when the Government pledges the European digital pass will begin operation here. It’s going to be a busy and fraught few weeks.

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Our lead story today is about those warnings from Nphet, likely to be passed on to Ministers when they assemble this morning at Dublin Castle for the weekly Cabinet meeting.

Taoiseach Micheál Martin also sounded a cautious note about the Delta variant when he spoke to reporters at Government Buildings yesterday. He said it was a “fast-moving situation” and warned: “we just have to say to people – be careful and be vigilant.”

Reading between the lines, you wouldn't be that optimistic about indoor hospitality.

At around the same time, hospitality industry representatives were meeting Government officials, and a variety of options for reopening were discussed. Cormac McQuinn's report is here.

Among the options is printed – or scanned, presumably – evidence of vaccination or recovery from Covid that would serve as a ticket to entry indoors, but as the Taoiseach pointed out yesterday, this would require a change in Government policy. Other options include antigen testing, or evidence of a PCR test.

There are likely to be two reactions to this plan – one is “that could never work” and the other is “why couldn’t it work?” More detail is going to be needed before minds are made up as to which it is.

In the meantime, the push for reopening for pubs and restaurants will become louder – but so will the rumble of the approaching Delta surge. It hasn't hit the daily numbers in a big way yet. But it will.

Paul Cullen also has an analysis of where Ireland stands right now.

Dublin Bay South campaign enters final stretch

While these grave matters of public policy occupy political leaders, those leaders are also casting their eyes – some with more enthusiasm than others – towards the redbrick avenues and terraces of Dublin Bay South where the Coalition Government will undergo its first electoral test in Thursday’s byelection.

The last manic few days of canvassing have begun as each party scrambles to get its voters out. Fine Gael has stuck to its electoral strategy of seeking to frame the election as a contest between itself and Sinn Féin – even though the main challenger to pre-election favourite James Geoghegan has turned out to be not the Sinn Féin candidate Lynn Boylan but Labour’s Ivana Bacik.

No matter says Fine Gael – Bacik would vote for a Sinn Féin motion of no confidence in the Government, and might even (shock! horror!) vote for Mary Lou McDonald to become the Taoiseach.

In a constituency that is – polls show – quite satisfied with the current Coalition, this is a reasonable pivot. But does it get Geoghegan to 50 per cent plus one when the transfers start to cascade? Or will Bacik catch him? The political consensus is she’s on her bike. Looks tight though.

Best reads

Fintan on Ireland's battle to hold back the tide on tax reform.

Denis Staunton on the Great British Reopening.

Micheál Martin appeals to the British to engage on the protocol.

Something didn't work in a Dutch disco trial.

Peter Murtagh on the case of an Irish resident being held in Iraq.

Playbook

The Cabinet meets at Dublin Castle this morning, with Covid high on the agenda. Ministers are expected to be briefed on new Nphet modelling, antigen testing and travel.

The focus will move to the unloved Convention Centre in the afternoon when Dáil business begins with Leaders’ Questions at 2pm, followed by the weekly order of business. There are Government statements on action to tackle sexual- and gender-based violence and a Sinn Féin Private Members’ Bill that would ban rent increases.

It’s a busy day at the committees. A delegation of “the next generation of political representatives in Northern Ireland” will be at the Good Friday Agreement committee. Universities’ representatives are at the education committee to discuss forthcoming legislation that will change the way universities are governed.

The beef industry, childminding issues and carbon emissions will be discussed elsewhere. The full schedule is here.

Finally, beware of much skirmishing in Dublin Bay South as candidates jostle for attention and advantage.